The internal pressure comes from the
fact that the key reasons for the EuroMaidan Revolution of 2013-14have not been addressed: there is no
serious effort to carry out fundamental and systematic reforms, to eradicate corruption,
abuse of power by the ruling elites, oligarchs and entrenched bureaucracy.
The old kleptocratic/oligarchic system, which
just mutated into a more polished and Westernized look, continues to suffocate
the country and its economy. Indeed,
after nearly two years since the start of the Maidan movement, nobody from top
echelons of the previous regime responsible for corruption and violence was
brought to justice. The public is becoming increasingly
frustrated with the new government, providing a basis for political infighting,
finger-pointing, and rising populism.
The external pressure comes from Russia
and the West and focuses on the political settlement outlined in Minsk II
agreements. The two main demands for
Ukraine, which were recently reiterated by the French President Francois Hollande, as reported by BBC http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34174382, are to hold local elections at the territories controlled by
separatists during the nationwide local elections on Oct. 25 and
decentralization by granting autonomy to separatist territories before Dec. 31.
Hollande, as reported by BBC, only named the
commitments of Ukraine, and was quick to point out that if Ukraine complies, he
“will ask for sanctions to be lifted,” referring to sanctions
imposed by the European Union, United Staes and some other countries on Russia for its aggression
against Ukraine.
There is a logical contradiction in this position.
The lifting of sanctions against the
aggressor should be based on the fulfillment of the commitments by the
aggressor rather than by the victim.
Hollande did not point out that Russia
must withdraw from Ukraine, and pay the damages for the destroyed lives and
property. There was no mention that Russia must release Ukrainian citizens it
kidnapped and subjected to its cannibalistic “justice” system, or that Russia
withdraws from Crimea, or that Russia lets Ukraine take control of its State
border in Eastern Ukraine.
This position is viewed by Ukrainian
public as fundamentally unfair. The
recent deadly tragic events on Aug. 31 during the vote on the
decentralization amendment to the Constitution is the case in point. Clearly, any
actions that can be interpreted as legitimizing the separatist regimes risk causing even more violence.
Perhaps, this is exactly what Russia
wants.
ndeed, at present Russia does not need to be engaged in any
visible military activities in Ukraine. The plans for “illegitimate”
elections scheduled in the separatist areas before the legitimate nationwide
local elections in Ukraine on Oct. 25 can be scrapped too.
Then,
Ukraine will be trapped.
If Ukraine, following the ceasefire, does not allow
elections in the separatist areas on Oct. 25, it will violate Minsk II. On the other
hand, if Ukraine allows these elections, it is predictable who will win
elections held at a gunpoint in the territories controlled by the separatists,
and this can cause a storm inside Ukraine.
Putin has always ignored Ukrainian
people as a force on the geopolitical arena, and got himself into a lot of
trouble because of that. Without
public support in Ukraine, any political resolution will not be sustainable.
Having Ukraine’s political elites on board is not enough. Recall that the
political settlement between Mr. Yanukovich and the opposition leaders in
February of 2014, mediated by the Western and Russian representatives, was
rejected by the public and Yanukovich’s regime
fell just days after.
Today, the West should not repeat this
mistake. Scores of Ukrainians went through the hell of war defending Ukraine against separatists and the Russian army in the east. Many have died. After this major
sacrifice, Ukrainians will only accept a fair deal. The risk of explosion is real, which can trigger a big war with Russia directly
affecting Europe (the current refugee crisis in the EU will be dwarfed by the
flood of refugees from Ukraine).
Although in this case the explosion
will be caused by external pressure, it will be fueled by the internal pressure
caused by extreme frustration of Ukrainians with the current leadership.
The
only chance to peacefully release this internal pressure is for the country
leaders to give a signal to Ukrainian public that the existing post-Soviet kleptocratic/oligarchic
system will be decisively dismantled from the top.
Ukraine is fortunate to have a group of true
reformists, as for example Odesa Governor Mikheil Saakashvili, Finance
Minister Natalie Jaresko and others, who could spearhead this fundamental
task.
This process must start
immediately, well before the Oct. 25 local elections. The overwhelming support for the online
petition to appoint Saakashvili the prime minister is a sign of tremendous
public demand for reforms and leadership (the petition has bypassed the
required 25 000 votes in only seven days https://petition.president.gov.ua/petition/1606).
There are several positive developments
that will make it easier for Ukraine to proceed with fundamental reforms as
quickly and deeply as possible.
First, the macroeconomic situation has shown
signs of improvement, which was confirmed by International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde during her
recent visit to Ukraine.
Second, the
debt-restructuring deal with creditors achieved by Jaresko should give Ukraine the much-needed breathing space.
Third, the
overwhelming public disgust with oligarchs and corruption creates favorable
conditions for de-oligarchisation and fundamental reforms.
Fourth, Ukraine has support from the West as
long as it implements reforms. Finally, Ukraine has people on the ground, both
Ukrainians and foreigners, who have experience, will and courage to make a
radical change.
Ukrainians have demonstrated incredible
resilience, self-organization (including the massive volunteer movement),
common sense, tolerance and patriotism both in economic and political
terms. By all accounts Ukraine should
have been in ashes by now as the weight of adverse factors has been daunting:
almost 25 years of stagnant economy caused by the post-Soviet kleptocracy, enormous
concentration of wealth and political power by a handful of oligarchs, dramatic
Revolution of Dignity, followed by Russia’s aggression (occupation of Crimea,
supplies of weapons and manpower to the separatists in the East, economic
blockage and blackmail).
We can only
imagine what an incredible progress Ukraine could make if it can get rid of the
old oligarchic-kleptocratic system and join the civilized world.
This chance is hanging by a thread right
now. Immediate, decisive actions are needed from the country’s leadership, supported by a fair geopolitical deal for Ukraine
accomplished by the West.
Irina Paliashvili is managing partner of RULG-Ukrainian Legal Group and chair of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council’s legal committee and a member of the VoxUkraine Law Advisory Board). VoxUkraine co-founders are Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley, and Tymofiy Mylovanov University of Pittsburgh.
