After listening to the growing criticism of Ukrainian leadership regarding the reform process for the past six months in Brussels, I was surprised to not hear that much of it during the second international conference on Ukrainian reforms which took place on June 27 in Copenhagen.
The event brought together ministers of foreign affairs, states secretaries, ambassadors of the G7, European Union, NATO countries and representatives of international organizations. The event was hosted by Prime Minister of Denmark Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman.
The criticism was mild, soft, covered with diplomatic words, reminding a carrot without the stick.
It seems that there were three reasons for this: money, Trump, and Ukraine itself – more specifically, the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019.
The first two things are more or less clear.
On money: the international community already invested billions in Ukraine, so it would be unwise to lose all of this if Ukraine fails.
On Trump: the international partners prefer to be nice to Kyiv, rather than pushing Ukraine away, as Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin can potentially decide the future of the country at their next meeting.
The third factor is more complicated. Nobody knows what to expect from the upcoming elections.
As the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson said during the conference: “Next year the people of Ukraine will give their verdict on the record of their leaders in building a more democratic, stable and prosperous country… The outcome of these elections is unknown, which is more than you can say about the outcome of the election in a big neighbor of Ukraine, where the outcome was known for a year in advance.” Johnson was hinting at Russia, which re-elected Putin as president in March.
On the other hand, there is an understanding that the upcoming elections can be a threat to reforms.
“Populist forces advocate that prosperity can be achieved without painful reforms. If they will succeed in Ukraine, the impact could be dramatic. Denmark and the international community remain firmly behind Ukraine in its struggle to break change of the past,” said Rasmussen.
He did not use the word “election” but this phrase would fit very well in this context.
During the conference, all participants were praising the Ukrainian government and Groysman personally for their efforts to deliver on the reform agenda. Yes, it was an inter-governmental conference, which had nothing to do with the presidential level, but it is hard to imagine that if Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko also was involved in this process in full, that nobody would mention his name. Everything was only about Groysman and his government with the main message: “Please, continue and we will be there for you”.
Groysman replied: “You don’t need to encourage us, we are already encouraged”.
The press conference was especially revealing. Participants were the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini, Secretary of State of the U.K. Boris Jonhson, ministers of foreign affairs of Canada and Denmark Chrystia Freeland and Anders Samuelsen and, of course, Groysman and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.
The Kyiv Post asked them, whether there was some kind of recipe for the Ukrainian government to secure the reform process from upcoming elections, the unofficial campaign for which has already started. Only Mogherini answered.
“It is still one year to go. Time is still there to… implement important reforms,” she said. “I’m really impressed by the determination and energy with which prime minister and government are pushing for reforms, especially on anti-corruption. I believe this is really key for your country. The encouragement is to continue and to add good reforms to the reforms that already have been in place.”
Mogherini thinks that “elections are not the moment where everything is suspended.”
“Elections are the salt of democracy, the moment when we celebrate our citizens right to choose those who are governing the country. It is not a moment of suspension of public life. On the contrary, it is the highest moment of public life. This should be a moment where a government can proudly present to the Ukrainian people, who have been asking for reforms, the results and the way ahead.”
Mogherini again stressed the “full support of the international partners.”
“As I said, the EU was there from the very beginning with massive political but also financial support and we will continue to do so”, she added.
If one tried to read between the lines of the European partners’ message to the Ukrainian government and Groysman at the conference, it would be something like this: “You have to go on during both election campaigns implementing all these painful reforms. It is not so bad because all blame from the Ukrainian people will go to the president. We will continue to support you and then you can present all these achievements as yours.”
Iryna Somer is the Kyiv Post correspondent in Brussels.
