Mounting internal and external pressures threaten the stability and territorial integrity of opposition-held Idlib Province, where nearly 1 million internally displaced persons are concentrated without access to basic necessities. The Assad regime and Russia are deliberately exacerbating the mounting humanitarian crisis in Idlib and applying renewed military pressure as COVID-19 cases surge in the province. Rising tensions between jihadist groups in Idlib are driving further instability. These circumstances could enable pro-regime advances in the coming months by weakening anti-Assad forces.

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