Russian President Vladimir Putin has based his domestic support on economic growth and restoring the “Russian World.” With the Russian economy in a nosedive, the Kremlin looks increasingly likely to attack a former Soviet neighbor to revive its imperial credentials. Twelve years ago, Russia invaded Georgia to divert public attention from the 2008 financial crisis, and in 2014 it invaded Ukraine to help quash growing protests against Putin’s rule. A confluence of factors will make the next few months especially dangerous for Russia’s neighbors, but also for Russia itself.

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