As this posting goes to press, the Zapad 2017 exercise is coming to a close in Belarus, Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, and western Russia. The large exercise unfolded over the course of the last week, with some maneuvers occurring within 100 kilometers of Russia’s border with Estonia. Despite disagreement about the precise number of troops involved and concern over whether Moscow will leave some portion of Russian forces in Belarus even after the exercise ends, Moscow has clearly achieved important strategic effects. Media coverage of the scale of the event, the exercise scenario, and the array of offensive capabilities on display have assuredly convinced the Kremlin that a strong deterrent signal has been conveyed to the West. The question NATO must now ask itself is whether it has or can achieve a similar deterrent effect within Moscow.

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