eral approach of the United States is driving a global increase in anti‑Americanism, a pro‑active U.S. foreign policy in Ukraine could have positive effects and help tip the scales toward an opposition victory. If Viktor Yushchenko handles things more competently this time around, that is.
On Sept. 24, the United States suspended $54 million of aid and began a re‑examination of its policy toward President Leonid Kuchma. This re‑examination has been solely linked to the recent authentication of a July 2000 recording secretly made by one of Kuchma’s bodyguards. In the recording, Kuchma approves the clandestine sale of Kolchuga early warning systems to Iraq. The authentication only encompasses a very small part of a large stockpile of recordings (over 700 hours). However, the fact that a small part of the recordings has been verified as genuine lends credence to the claim that the rest of the recordings are also real. This could be used to provide a new impetus to the opposition’s case against Kuchma and his cronies. On the other side, the authentication, at this late date, shows just how flagrantly the West and the Ukrainian opposition mishandled the recordings when they first surfaced.
When recordings linking Kuchma to skulduggery including the disappearance of an opposition journalist were first made public, independent Ukraine saw its first real attempt at a much‑needed political revolution. The opposition called for the removal of Kuchma and the development of a democratic, law‑based society. However, at that critical time in Ukraine’s history, two major factors helped undermine the opposition and ultimately keep Kuchma in power, and Ukraine in crisis.
The first was the failure of the West, and America in particular, to take a stand and authenticate the tapes. At the time, the Western powers took a passive approach to Ukraine (whose geopolitical importance at the time was far greater than it is today, since Russia was still out of the Western fold). No one wanted to rock the boat, and the Western world turned a blind eye as the presidential regime swept all the allegations under the rug and forcibly broke up the opposition. Independent examiners even went so far as to say that the recordings were impossible to authenticate, lending a semblance of legitimacy to the Ukrainian authorities’ claims that the tapes had been forged.
The second factor that helped undermine the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement of 2000 was the refusal of Viktor Yushchenko, then prime minister, to join an opposition movement that so desperately needed his leadership. He did not push to create a new political structure, deciding instead to work within the failing system and support Kuchma. Just as he is doing today, Yushchenko chose to stay on the fence, uncommitted, while negotiating with the president and pro‑presidential parties. This severely hurt support for the movement. Yushchenko was politically neutralized, and when Ukraine Without Kuchma fizzled out, he was removed from office by pro‑presidential forces.
Almost two years on from Ukraine Without Kuchma, the repercussions from the war on terrorism are finally making themselves felt in Ukraine. Some major changes in global attitudes have already been seen. Russia’s monumental decision to integrate with the West and befriend America is an example. America’s much more active role in world affairs is another. Now the United States is reevaluating its relations with Ukraine and acknowledges Kuchma may yet have to face up to earlier charges brought against him.
Is Ukraine going to adapt to the new world order or continue to stagnate in its own mire? As of today, Ukraine’s choice is still unknown.
The time has again come for Yushchenko to take a strong stand against Kuchma and his allies. Now that he is the leader of the largest faction in the Rada, he is more protected than in the past and should feel more comfortable doing this. His current strategy of pressuring the current regime into building a coalition government will not achieve anything, and should be abandoned whatever the immediate costs. If Yushchenko follows his current, passive strategy, it is all but certain that the current regime will find a way to neutralize him again further down the road.
Yushchenko should not only support Ukraine’s opposition movement to remove Kuchma from power, he should spearhead it. The world has changed and the United States would welcome and support a belated call from Yushchenko for a real political revolution in Kyiv. America’s authentication of this recording is definitely late in coming, but it has given Ukraine and Yushchenko one of the most rare things in life: a second chance at a golden opportunity.
Michael Sito is a Moscow‑based investment banker who has been following Ukrainian politics since 1996.
