Many politicians saw the decision by the Constitutional Court to cancel the constitutional reform of 2004, thereby handing President Viktor Yanukovych more authorities, as a usurpation of power.
But there is an opposing view: that it will allow Yanukovych to push through political and economic overhauls. It was always clear that Yanukovych, the president since Feb. 25, would cancel the 2004 amendments. The questions now are – why did he do it, and what next?
I suggest he has done it in order to continue political reforms. He needs new political reform to change the country, to transform it. Some might argue we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt; but there is a high chance that the president will bring reform to life.
This is the moment for Yanukovych to think how history books will describe him: as a twice-convicted person who turned into a regional leader and then leader of the Party of Regions, or as a person who, despite his controversial past, brought positive changes.
Yanukovych has reached the top of his political career. This is the moment for him to think how history books will describe him: as a twice-convicted person who turned into a regional leader and then leader of the Party of Regions, or as a person who, despite his tough and controversial past, managed to become a key figure in Ukraine’s history who brought about positive changes?
Yanukovych is an ambitious man who thinks about these things.
Understanding that power is not an end in itself but an instrument, Yanukovych will develop and improve the new constitution. He would very much like it to be Yanukovych’s constitution, bearing his name, like the Napoleonic Code or Stalin’s and Brezhnev’s constitutions in the Soviet Union.
More than half a century ago, Charles de Gaulle started his presidency in France by changing the constitution. He was then able to bring order and successful reform to the country. Like de Gaulle, Yanukovych decided to change the country through changes to the constitution that give them maximum power for reform.
What kind of changes can Yanukovych make in the near future?
First – and this might again sound paradoxical – he might have to broaden the functions of local self-government, increase the power of mayors and thus turning them into allies in carrying out regional policies.
Back in 1995, then-President Leonid Kuchma made formerly elected heads of regional administrations totally dependent on the president. They started off as his opponents, and eventually turned into reliable weapons in his hands, called “governors.”
Today, most of the potential mayors who will take part in local elections on Oct. 31 are completely loyal to Yanukovych, and are in opposition to governors. By increasing the functions of mayors and territorial powers through a new constitution, Yanukovych might actually end up with a more effective and manageable system, which can change the country at its roots.
The second tendency one might predict is centrifugal forces within large political groups – primarily within the Party of Regions, Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense.
Until now, the internal contradictions were compensated for by a single factor: parliamentary factions. The factions, according to constitutional changes of 2004, were the major pillars of parliamentary activities. That meant that sometimes enemies who got into parliament on the same party list were forced to coexist because they had to either vote in unison or disappear.
But today it’s no longer the case. Parliament members can once again create new factions after gathering 14 allies. This can cause mega-factions to split up, and we will end up seeing factions grouped around leading figures in the Party of Regions such as oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.
But who said that Yanukovych cares about the interests of the Party of Regions? He is no longer their leader? The party has many talented managers, but also many dimwits, careerists and accidental fellow-travelers.
This obviously goes contrary to the interests of the country’s biggest party. But who said that Yanukovych cares about the interests of the Party of Regions? He is no longer their leader. It played a role in bringing Yanukovych to power, but who says it needs to play the first role in ruling the country? It has many talented managers, but also many dimwits, careerists and accidental fellow-travelers. This is something Yanukovych also understands
To create a new image, Yanukovych will have to cast off sentimental deadwood. He might even be sincerely grateful to the old comrades for fighting alongside him in past wars. But what if his comrades do not give him a chance to develop further, achieve goals and change the country? They should be thanked, and then he can move on without them.
The Constitutional Court on Oct. 1 cancels the 2004 constitutional changes, making Ukraine a presidential republic once again. (Ukrinform)
That’s why we can predict serious staff changes, both locally and in the Cabinet of Ministers, and the exit of many key representatives of the Party of Regions and the arrival into the ruling team of young specialists with foreign degrees, the introduction of strict discipline and responsibility for executing commands, the reduction and optimization of staff, and other novelties.
I would not be surprised if a new prime minister is appointed and a new government. I would not be surprised if Yanukovych supports the initiative of early elections: He needs a controlled parliament, while the current one wants to be an ally rather than a vassal.
Yanukovych needs a parliament that will approve his laws quickly, rather than start debates about their necessity and count the cost of their implementation in dollars and euro.
That is why cancellation of the 2004 reform is the start of a new one, and of a new political epoch. Today Yanukovych can concentrate on the political reform of the country, and leave the economic reform in the hands of Deputy Prime Minister Sergiy Tigipko.
After June 3, the day when in his annual speech the president effectively repeated the election program of Tigipko, conditions arose for a new pro-reform tandem. That’s because reform cannot happen without the will of its initiators.
Without the support from the president, Tigipko the reformist risks remaining an influential genius who offers hope but has no way of implementing his ideas. But without Tigipko, Yanukovych can turn into an all-powerful ruler, who would like to change something, but can bring no system to these changes – primarily because of his party environment and its callousness.
The country is on the verge of change. These changes have to be led by powerful and effective people, despite the wailing of the opposition (which is basically non-existent in Ukraine), and the resistance of the party of power (whose time is long past).
The political reform of 2004 is dead. Long live greater reforms?
Kost Bondarenko is deputy head of Sergiy Tigipko’s party, Strong Ukraine, and former director of a think tank.
