The French president’s 6 hour tête à tête with his counterpart in the Kremlin did not reap any miracles. It was all about politics and psychology, taking place as it did in the context of the Ukrainian crisis.
After more than 5 hours of dialogue, the Russian president welcomed suggestions from the French president but remained firm about keeping Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.
During an at once extremely laborious and shocking press conference, which took place in Moscow following the talks, it appeared that for President Putin the five hours spent with President Macron on Monday evening had seemed very long.
“President Macron has been talking to me for nearly six hours – almost torturing me!“
said Vladimir Putin at the end of the discussions.
This commentary from the Russian president underlines the intensity of the exchange which took place at a huge oval table in one of the Kremlin’s reception rooms.
Emmanuel Macron only admitted that they had, “had a rich and substantial exchange," Vladimir Putin said he was ready to compromise and that he welcomed suggestions from the French president. “In my opinion, some of his (Macron’s) suggestions are feasible and could serve as a foundation.”
However, Putin made no concessions about withdrawing military forces from the border with Ukraine.
Putin is extremely calculative, but this doesn’t mean that he never makes mistakes. He evaluates his interlocutors, partners or adversaries – depending on whether they are in Kyiv, Washington or Paris.
He knows that, unlike him, they would not coldly choose to use force, and he makes the most of this.
Like a hostage-taker, he plays on the fact that others believe he is capable of taking action to increase the pressure in negotiations. This is his main advantage.
During the strangely ambiguous press conference in the Kremlin, as well as politics, there was a great deal of psychology. Trauma, historical wounds, fears that exist on both sides of the new Iron Curtain were all mentioned.
But what was clear from Vladimir Putin’s words is that he is dreaming of a time machine, while the West, through the voice of Emmanuel Macron responds that you cannot question what already exists.
Putin’s permanent hope is that this time machine could return things to the moment in 1997 – the year of the otherwise unimportant agreement between NATO and Russia.
He wants to revert to a Europe of that time – a time when the countries of Central and Eastern Europe were not yet members of NATO. Is he asking the impossible in the hope that he will at least gain something?
Or is he really hoping for a return to an old status quo. The success or failure of the negotiations depends on our understanding this.
Putin certainly has NATO in his sights. “Ask your citizens whether they want France to enter into a war with Russia. We are concerned about European security as a whole,” declared President Putin before the French president, in a message full of innuendo.
In this balance of power, President Macron tries to maintain the position of mediator.
“President Zelensky leads a country on whose border are massed 125,000 Russian soldiers – I am sure it’s a cause for nervousness,“
he quipped.
But the result must have been a bitter recognition for President Macron that he had not been able to influence President Putin before visiting Ukraine on Tuesday morning and Berlin that same afternoon.
However, it has also become clear that Putin has failed. Instead of fracture and disharmony in the West and in NATO, we see Euro-Atlantic unity on all the key questions regarding relations with Russia.
We see an unprecedented level of support for Ukraine (a level which, had it been shown in 2014, would have avoided the annexation of Crimea and the tragedies in Donbas that followed and have cost the lives of 15 000 people.)
The West has told Putin in no uncertain terms that Russia will gain no special “sphere of influence”, and Ukraine is firmer than ever in its rejection of any special status for Donbas, where Russian proxies are operating.
In his book "The First Person”, published in 2000, Putin describes an episode from his childhood.
He had once tried to kill a rat and had hit it with a bat - we won’t dwell on the young Putin’s cruelty here - but what is interesting is that when this book was published, he was already president and in recounting this incident, Putin mentions how scared he was when the cornered rat rushed at him.
Professor (h.c.) Olivier VÉDRINE, political scientist, journalist, writer, chief editor of Russian Monitor https://rusmonitor.com/ , member of the Steering Committee of the Association Jean Monnet.
