Russia has tried to maintain its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia’s attempts have ranged from cyberattacks in the Baltic states to occupying territory in Moldova’s Transnistria, Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Ukraine’s Crimea and Donbas. Russia is also monitoring the protest movements in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan to determine how it might intervene, something that is becoming increasingly more likely in 2021.

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