Turkey and Azerbaijan may have jointly planned the Azerbaijani offensive to contest Armenia’s control of Nagorno-Karabakh that reignited that simmering conflict. Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed, Armenian-held region of Nagorno-Karabakh escalated into conventional combat on Sept. 27. International media coverage has largely portrayed the ongoing conflict as the result of a spontaneous escalation. But Turkish-Azerbaijani military cooperation, drone sales, and force mobilization indicate Azerbaijan prepared – with Turkish support – to dispute Armenia’s presence in Nagorno-Karabakh prior to Sept. 27. Azerbaijan reportedly purchased Turkish-made drones in June 2020 and is deploying them to great effect. Turkish and Azerbaijani forces conducted large-scale joint military exercises between July 29 and Aug. 10 and conducted high-level bilateral meetings on July 16 and Aug. 13. Following the exercises, Turkey left behind F-16 fighter jets in Azerbaijan as a “deterrent” against Armenia. The extent of Turkish military personnel involved in current active combat operations, if any, is unclear.

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