As Russia appears to be escalating the war in eastern Ukraine, the debate in the West on possible sanctions against Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko’s regime goes on. One of the potential actions presumably under consideration may be the imposition of an embargo on Belarusian oil product exports to Europe. Such a policy, however, would only be partially effective without Ukrainian participation, as the latter accounts for up to approximately one-third of Belarusian fuel export volumes. And for this same reason, it would be highly unlikely that Kyiv could back such a sanctions proposal.

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