Russian President Vladimir Putin filled a diplomatic vacuum in the South Caucasus on Oct. 9 by cajoling the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to agree to a ceasefire in their long-time war over Nagorno-Karabakh, which resumed on Sept. 27. While dubbed a temporary humanitarian ceasefire to enable prisoner exchanges and recovery of fallen soldiers’ bodies, Putin likely intends it to be permanent and to pave the way for renewed negotiations of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group. While Azerbaijan would have preferred to continue pressing its military advantage, it will now have a chance to return to negotiations from a new position of strength. The agreement also suggests that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was forced to retract several provocative statements that had torpedoed the peace talks as the price for Azerbaijan ceasing its military operations.
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A man stands by what is said is the remains of a Tochka U missile in a field in Fizuli district, Azerbaijan, on Oct. 11, 2020, during the ongoing military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
