In the increasingly forlorn hope that the West will somehow reward its good behavior, Ukraine is effectively fighting with one hand tied behind its back, unable to relieve pressure on Debaltseve by opening another front.
But that reward still seems to be a long way off. Although on Feb. 16 the European Union finally acknowledged that Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, its response has to been to sanction two junior defense ministers, a senior military commander and a pop star.
In the meantime, many of the young activists and campaigners who took to Maidan to fight for a better life are now dying in the snowy fields around Debaltseve, abandoned to a battle of attrition by their Ukrainian commanders. Their purpose is to use their well-established dugouts to kill as many enemy forces as possible before dying themselves. They are being used to buy time in the hope that western military hardware will eventually arrive.
One of those young activists, now an army medic called Alik, is tonight just 500 meters away from a steadily encroaching mix of Russian regular and separatist forces. He and his fellow soldiers have seen dozens of videos of Ukrainians just like them captured, abused and even tortured. Rumors of captured soldiers being executed abound.
Now Alik and his unit face a tough decision. Fight to the death, or surrender and hope for the best. They already know that no rescue can reach them along the bombed out, mined road between Ukrainian lines at Artemivsk and Debaltseve. They already know that they are hopelessly outgunned by modern Russian units and their Russian-equipped allies.
After Illovayisk and Donetsk airport, Debaltseve will be the third major defeat for Ukraine. And as long as Russia throws its weight behind the separatist fighters, there will be more. Indeed, as long as Russia is ruled by a kleptocratic elite with any semblance of economic power, they will continue to do what they know best – grabbing what they want from the hands of someone weaker.
It is well past time for the West, and particularly Europe, most imminently threatened by Russia, to demonstrate that it is not weaker.
That won’t be by pulling out bigger and better guns and handing them to Ukrainians. Throughout Russia’s history, it has never been afraid of losing soldiers.
NATO weapons in Ukrainian hands would simply escalate the slaughter; Russians may think twice about dying fighting their Slavic brethren in Ukraine, but they will die in droves if they believe they are fighting that old enemy, Western expansionism. And that belief will be easier to swallow with Western weapons in Ukrainian hands.
Nor will it be by further flexing of financial muscle. Russia has had enough slaps on the wrist and it has changed nothing. Now Europe has to go for the jugular – sanctions designed to break completely a stuttering economy that has for years served simply as a conveyer belt for energy profits to oligarchs.
Block Russia from SWIFT and enjoy the added bonus of cutting off oligarchs from their assets abroad. Introduce a trade embargo on parts for weapons and machine parts which can be used to make weapons. A tax on Russian energy imports. Travel bans and asset seizures for the top tier of the regime; enough time and energy has been wasted on the foot soldiers, now the West must target the godfathers.
Ordinary Russians will suffer too, of course. Some will go hungry and some will struggle to make ends meet. But ultimately, they’ll have the opportunity to break down the system and replace it with one that suits Russia’s ordinary citizens. Most importantly, Putin’s ability to wage war will dwindle with a receding economy. Thousands of ordinary Russians will be spared returning home in metal boxes.
Not that the EU is really worried about the welfare of Russians. The greatest block to greater sanctions has always been its own self-interest. The bloc’s collective economy looks weaker than ever, and there is no denying it will suffer further from a trade war with Russia. But it will recover over time. Perhaps, in the long run, it will even benefit from a less Russian energy-dependent world.
Kyiv Post editor Maxim Tucker can be reached at [email protected] or via Twitter: @MaxRTucker
