The results of 2010 presidential election showed once again that the support of the two major Ukrainian political parties is still regionally divided. Political parties, be it Bloc of Yuliya Timoshenko (BYuT) or the Party of Regions, have constituencies that are clearly defined along regional and/or ethnic lines.
Lack of nationwide legitimacy of political parties inhibits Ukraine in conducting an effective foreign policy and further divides the country. Ukraine needs to be such that no matter what party is in power, Kyiv is the sole political center where citizens, regardless of their ethnicity, can lobby for their interests. In other words, more social inclusion and integration for all ethnic and regional communities is needed.
Lack of legitimacy of the central government also means lack of identification nationwide. This is especially clear in Sevastopol, with its history of pro-Moscow sentiments, which have been further fueled by the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and frequent visits of Muscovite politicians.
Ethnically Russian and Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine still retain some of the features of the Soviet policy of identification with the city/region on the one hand and Moscow on the other, rather than Kyiv. A contributing factor is that Russians and Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine traditionally lack grass-roots mechanisms, traditions and experience of political mobilization for making their voices heard in Kyiv.
This situation further welcomes outside interferences and leaves people with few political options. Despite their mostly regional appeal, the Pora movement and other supporting groups became effective tools for mobilizing western and central parts of Ukraine during the Orange Revolution in 2004.
Russians and Russian-speaking people of Ukraine do not have such mass-mobilizing grass-roots political groups as the ones that were active during the Orange revolution. Consequently, industry-backed, economic elites such as the Party of Regions become the more desirable power and the only mechanism of political rallying for the Russian-speaking regions.
In order to thrive, grass-roots culture needs to be encouraged. However, increased criticism of the current government in the issue of media freedom is an alarming sign for potential democratic roll-back.
In its latest report, the Freedom House noted certain decrease in the level of democracy in Ukraine.
Given the anti-democratic tendencies of the current government, the Party of Regions is clearly not a good framework for addressing the issue of the ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking population. Furthermore, because of its Russian-oriented policies, Party of Regions promotes further division in Ukraine and risks alienating western regions of Ukraine. In fact, both parties whose representatives made it to the second round of 2010 presidential elections, have built their political platforms along divisive political lines.
A new pan-Ukrainian political brand with grassroots outreach would help ease political polarization and contribute to integration of all communities in Ukraine. It will also contribute to an effective foreign policy and, more importantly, create better conditions for political integration of the Russian and Russian-speaking population.
The U.S. and the EU should pay considerable attention to fostering grassroots culture in Ukraine. Ukraine possesses enormous intellectual potential and strong Western-educated population from all over Ukraine to understand and undertake grass-roots projects.
Without such a new brand, Ukraine will remain socially and politically polarized and, as evidenced during the April 2010 gas-for-fleet agreements, unable to conduct an independent foreign policy course.
Ukraine needs a sensible political brand like the one created by Obama campaigners, which mobilized a whole new generation of young Americans eager to make a change. EU experience with grass-roots mobilization, social and ethnic cohesion will be a crucial contribution for creating a new political brand in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s European integration, democratic development as well as further introduction of grass-roots politics will benefit all communities in Ukraine including its large Russian/Russian-speaking population. European and integrated Ukraine will equal strong and independent Ukraine.
Tamerlan Vahabov, a Kyiv-based analyst, holds an M.A. from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and an M.S. from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. He previously worked as an analyst at the Interpol General Secretariat and as a U.S. desk officer at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan. His research interests include energy, security and domestic politics in Ukraine, Russia and the Caucasus.
