In winter 2014, Ukrainians protested for weeks against corruption and Russian influence. Surrounded by police with shields, they stood their ground, singing, speechifying, and defying. When snipers from Russia were finally brought in and killed 100, millions flooded the streets, Putin’s puppet President fled, and Russian tanks and troops rolled into eastern Ukraine. But volunteers held off a full-scale invasion and now Ukraine has a huge army and a civil society that is more united against Russia than ever. They are digging in and preparing for a guerilla war by distributing weapons to citizens. Said one official: “Our people are ready to fight. Every window will shoot if [Russians] go [in].”
This is not bravado. Ukrainians know how to handle Russia. They have survived wars, communist terror, starvation, poverty, political treachery, Russia’s disdain for their culture, and its desire to reconquer them. Notably, the country’s anthem, written 30 years ago, describes the national DNA, rooted in sacrifice: “Body and soul we will lay down for our freedom. And we will show that we are people of Cossack heritage.”
Russia has been flirting with, but not fully committed, to invasion. Putin squeezes energy prices to cause pain across Europe. He moves his troops and tanks here and there, then distributes this intel to heighten anxiety and to yield hoped-for concessions. As the Beijing Olympics approaches, fears heighten because he invaded Georgia and Ukraine during two Olympic Games. Europeans realize what Ukrainians have always known about the Kremlin and reports are that President Joe Biden may send another 50,000 U.S. troops to Eastern Europe and the Baltics. It’s about time.
This is a “European crisis”, but America fronts the negotiations with Putin and has worked to corral NATO and European nations into some form of consensus. It has taken the lead because of its military superiority and because Europe’s two largest countries, Germany and France, have been co-opted by Russia. France’s trade with Russia has boomed in recent years and Germany’s nearly-completed pipeline with Russia has been opposed by the European Union and Washington for years due to fear that the security crisis happening now would happen.
Putin’s pipeline weapon holds Europe hostage
Here’s the state of play:
The United States – Biden upped the stakes this week by hinting at troop deployments. Congress has passed tough sanctions against Putin’s pipeline to Germany and in December, the White House quietly sent another $200 million worth of military equipment to Ukraine on top of the $2.9 billion worth of military aid provided since 2014.
NATO – The 30-member organization has sent military trainers, missiles, and over 200,000 pounds of lethal aid to Ukraine so far. During the recent summit with Russian officials, all 30 members voiced their commitment to its “open door” policy that would admit Ukraine and Georgia if they met entry requirements, in defiance of Russia’s request to stop enlarging. Individually, NATO members have stepped up: the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have sent to Ukraine Stinger air defense systems and Javelins (with American permission). The Netherlands and Spain have deployed warplanes and warships to the Eastern European region. The Czechs and Dutch have sent armaments and Turkey is furnishing drones and weapons to Ukraine, has kept the Black Sea open to allied navies, and has signed a high-level Defense Agreement with Ukraine.
NATO and when countries joined
The United Kingdom – In search of identity since Brexit, Britain has aggressively asserted itself into the melee in its new role as a strong, principled Middle Power. Britain was the first Western nation to send warships into the Black Sea off Ukraine’s coast where a Russian fleet resides, the first to send troops to Poland and Ukraine plus weaponry, and has publicly debunked historical lies told by Moscow about Ukraine. Over the weekend, Britain’s intelligence officialdom detailed Russian plans to overthrow Ukraine’s government, cause chaos, and use this as a pretext to invade. It has vociferously condemned Putin on behalf of the West.
Poland and all former Soviet Satellites – These nations have warned and fought against Putin’s pipeline to Germany because of the security threat to Europe. They have provided weapons and diplomatic pressure, including, most recently, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece.
Sweden and Finland – These countries are now considering joining NATO to protect themselves against a belligerent Russia for the first time.
Germany – Germany has distinguished itself as a self-absorbed nation that is not in sync with the all-for-one-and-one-for-all mentality that both the European Union and NATO require. Germany pushed its pipeline with Russia over the objections of the rest of the EU, is a laggard in NATO contributions, and has used its veto to keep Ukraine out of NATO as well as to try and block weapons shipments to Ukraine by other EU members, most recently Estonia. Under fire from allies, its new government recently warned Putin that if he invades Ukraine, his new pipeline will never be commissioned.
France – France has supported NATO and sent armaments to Ukraine, but President Emmanuel Macron has also broken ranks with the notion of U.S.-led discussions. He now faces a re-election challenge by Putin-backed fascist Marine Le Pen.
Italy – In late December, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi played down the risk of Russia invading Ukraine, saying Moscow’s behavior indicates its desire to explore diplomacy. Italy is currently negotiating a comprehensive trade deal with Ukraine.
Europe’s overwhelming concern about the Russian threat, and Biden’s hint at 50,000 American boots on the ground, are important backdrops to the “diplomacy” underway. In my opinion, Russia has no intention of invading, and its “invasion gambit” has been about destabilizing the West and forcing Ukraine to let Russia’s separatist-controlled region in Donbas rejoin Ukraine and send representatives to its parliament. But this is a non-starter, a “Trojan-Horse” strategy that would be used to sabotage the country’s democracy and reforms. Instead, allies should insist Russia pay $32 billion reparations for damages, deaths, and the dislocation of two million Ukrainians caused by its occupation since 2014. It should also expel the 300,000 armed Russian operatives who have colonized the place.
Stolen Property
Thus far, President Joe Biden has been biding his time through “diplomacy” which means endless meetings that result in more meetings. But as Putin digs in and his “invasion season” nears — the Olympics — the White House has realized that an American show of force is needed. This raises the stakes dramatically and will likely extend talks until the spring when the weather will warm, relieving the European energy crisis and thawing the ground which would make an invasion impossible.
That is why now the tables must be turned. Putin should be given seven days to pull his troops back 100 miles from Ukraine’s borders or be hit with severe sanctions damaging to his economy, corporations, and cronies. He should be told that such sanctions will remain until Russia withdraws its troops from all Ukrainian territory invaded in 2014, Donbas and Crimea. Next Russia should be declared a terrorist nation by the United Nations, G7, and G20 and a scorched-earth policy of diplomatic and economic isolation must be undertaken. No imports from, and no exports of technology or capital to, Russia.
Is war inevitable because Putin has gone too far to pull back and save face? Clearly, he has but that’s irrelevant. He has already “lost” because Ukrainians remain resolute and Europeans realize they must diversify away from investing or trading with Russia, leaving it poorer and more dependent on China, its potentially dangerous “ally”.
So far, the lesson to be learned is best expressed by Ukrainian physician Marta Yuzkiv, who is training to kill Russians in order to defend her country. “I would like to say that we are in danger now, and not just danger for Ukraine, but the danger for the whole democratic world. So I hope altogether we can stop Putin.”
Published in cooperation with the author and her Diane Francis Newsletter on America and the World https://dianefrancis.substack.com/about
