A few hours after President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris took oaths to execute their duties and defend the U.S. Constitution, the United States Senate met in full session to swear in three new Democratic senators – two from the state of Georgia who won special elections on Jan. 2, and one from the state of California, replacing Kamala Harris. By the end of Jan. 20, the executive and legislative branches of power officially reverted to the control of Democrats, at least for a period of two years until the next legislative election in 2022.
By tradition, Biden will have a 100-day honeymoon period from inauguration day to launch his programs, staff more than 3,000 executive positions, and take over the reign of his vast executive powers. Fifteen executive orders signed on Jan. 20 show that Biden will move quickly to reverse many of President Donald j. Trump’s programs — beginning with rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, to mandating wearing masks on all federal property, and ending the travel ban on Muslims. His first 100-days will certainly not be without crisis and one of the most important ones is the COVID pandemic and the economic relief Americans are anticipating from the federal government.
When it comes broadly to U.S. foreign policy, no radical changes are expected immediately – at least until the Senate confirms Biden’s nominees to fill key State Department positions. That is expected within the next few weeks.
During Senate confirmation hearings for Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the Washington Post reports Blinken is expected to be easily confirmed with bipartisan support. In his Jan. 19, statement for the record, Blinken said “we’ll engage the world as it is, not as it was. A world of rising nationalism, receding democracy, growing rivalry with China, Russia, and other authoritarian states, mounting threats to a stable and open international system, and a technological revolution that is reshaping every aspect of our lives, especially in cyberspace.”
During the hearing question and answer session, Blinken pledged to continue the Trump administration’s direction with regard to China by stating “President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach on China.” On Iran, Blinken said the administration’s intention would be to reenter negotiations on a nuclear deal with Tehran. And with regard to Russia, Blinken said “it was extraordinary how frightened Putin is of (Alexei) Navalny,” continuing that “attempts to silence that voice is something we (the United States) strongly condemn.”
As the U.S. administration begins to re-engage with the world, so to have world capitals expressed readiness to work with the new leaders in Washington. Ukraine is no exception with President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeting that he is looking forward to meeting in Kyiv with U.S. President Biden in the near future. Regardless of the newness of the administration and some of its faces, American foreign policy is very much grounded in strategic interests and priorities and success is measured by how bilateral partnerships proceed and what progress is actually made on mutually agreed points of interest.
For United States policymakers there are at least two points that stand out with regard to Ukraine and the Zelensky presidency, which will need to be addressed in Kyiv before any meeting with high US government officials.
The first concern has its roots during an official visit to the United Kingdom by Zelensky in October 2020. Then, Zelensky held an unannounced meeting with the head of British intelligence, Richard Moore, at which three messages were conveyed to him.
First, attacks by Ukrainian authorities on anti-corruption bodies without any defense from the President’s Office were troubling.
Second, the situation in the Donbas and Russia’s actions.
Third, intelligence leaks from within Zelensky’s official and informal entourage were making their way back to Western capitals. Moore was instructed to hold the meeting with Zelensky by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Similar concerns were raised with Zelensky by Americans in the summer of 2020. And more recently by G7 ambassadors in Kyiv in December 2020.
Given the U.S. district attorney’s indictments against billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, many in the West are concerned over the domestic attacks on Ukraine’s anti-corruption authorities, especially the lack of cooperation by the Ukrainian side on helping bring the oligarch to justice. Of graver concern is the public U.S. support for the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine while at the same time intelligence leaks continue around Zelensky’s office. This has repercussions in NATO capitals and with Western partners like Israel. The issue raised is one of trust.
Second, multilateral funding is of course an important geopolitical instrument used by Western governments. It cannot go unnoticed in Washington, D.C., and other Western capitals that Ukraine has within the last year not been able to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund on economic reforms that would unleash a new tranche of funding.
Yet, at the same time, Ukraine continues to successfully sell government bonds on the international capital markets to cover budget deficits. In financial terms, there is nothing wrong with selling bonds. However, the fact that IMF money remains blocked shows the West that official Kyiv is not very keen on meeting its own economic reform commitments. And that is something that does concern Western governments because it sends a signal to the international business community that Ukraine may not be a very promising destination for foreign direct investment.
It’s easy to see how Ukraine’s leadership could be so positively taken with Biden’s inauguration, the lineup of stars from Lady Gaga to Jennifer Lopez, among others, and the awe-inspiring firework on the Washington Mall. But for Ukraine’s strategic relationship with the United States to be put on a new and priority level, Kyiv has a lot of homework to catch up on. Not wanting to engage with Trump during the election period is no longer a reason to do nothing. Given Republican concerns over the role of Hunter Biden, it’s politically immature to believe President Biden will visit a Ukraine still marred in corruption and struggling with reforms. Events in the West will begin to change rapidly with a new Washington administration. One thing remains perfectly clear and that is that neither Washington nor Western governments will reward unstable and do-nothing governments that cannot be trusted and do not keep their own promises.
Myron Wasylyk is director of international cooperation for the Growford Institute, an independent think tank in Kyiv.
