Few developments will embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin more than regaining influence in his priority theater and weakening Western sanctions. Putin is currently advancing these objectives. The Kremlin is regaining influence in Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova. It is likely using Belarus to rebuild its influence in Ukraine. This progress comes at little cost to Putin. The Kremlin has not curbed its aggression. It is instead focused on changing perceptions and fueling the self-imposed urgency in the West for a settlement of the war on Ukraine. Russia arguably needs the deal more in order to lift sanctions. A recent shift in Western rhetoric in Putin’s favor and tension in U.S.-Ukraine relations have weakened Ukraine’s negotiating position with the Kremlin. Putin’s progress is neither solidified, nor is it inevitable. The West can prevent the Kremlin from regaining and linking its influence in its neighboring states. The West should help stave off the more dangerous scenarios that are emerging in Ukraine.
Russia's War Against Ukraine
OP-ED
Nataliya Bugayova: Putin advances in Ukraine and its neighboring states
Thousands of people, many of them war veterans and right-wing activists, rally to mark the Defender of Ukraine Day and protest the approval of the so-called Steinmeier Formula in Kyiv on Oct. 14, 2019.
