Russia’s naked aggression against Georgia may very well be a test of a similar strategy to be applied in the near future against its much bigger prize: Ukraine. The tiny (population 70,000) “breakaway” (with Russian support) province of South Ossetia could easily be the Sevastopol or even Crimea of the future declaring its “independence” from Ukraine. Russian troops via its Sevastopol naval base would represent themselves as “peacekeepers” (to “protect” Russian nationals). Russia would hand out Russian citizenship to whoever asks for it and, lo and behold, a pretext is set in place for wholesale intervention by Russian forces, including the bombing of Ukrainian population centers.
The current Georgian scenario may have turned out entirely differently if Georgia had become a member of NATO. Russia knows that taking on a NATO member means a direct military challenge to Europe and North America, with unpredictable consequences for Russia.
That is why it is time for all patriotic Ukrainians, regardless of their political leanings, to move as quickly as possible for NATO entry. This is no longer an intellectual exercise. Georgia should convince us that NATO is essential to the peace, freedom and independence of Ukraine.
NATO is simply a defense alliance of 26 countries which agree to resolve their disputes peacefully, and to come to each other’s defense when attacked. The final decision to contribute troops or equipment to a NATOled operation is left to each member state. All NATO decisions are taken jointly by member states on the basis of consensus. NATO does not maintain its own military force but relies on voluntary contributions by member states. Each member state contributes towards NATO’s daytoday costs, which are estimated to be 0.5 percent of the total defense expenditure of NATO countries. In fact, member states generally enjoy markedly reduced defense expenditures because, rather than stand alone, each can rely on the support of other states when threatened.
Ukraine, more than any other European country, needs NATO. It is one of two countries against which Russia has made repeated and direct territorial claims and threats. (The other is Georgia.) It is one of two countries that has been the object of a broadbased Russian domestic and international campaign of unprecedented slander, subversion and intrusion into almost every facet of its life. Russian military forces in Ukraine ignore Ukrainian laws, as they ignore Georgian sovereignty over South Ossetia. Its political leaders openly encourage and support fragmentation of its territorial integrity, as in Georgia. And its media has been systematically stoking popular antiUkrainian hysteria.
Russia understands that Ukrainian membership in NATO will – once and for all – remove Ukraine from its hegemony. Its unreconstructed imperialists, who still consider Ukrainian statehood to be a transitory aberration, will have to give up their dreams of Russian domination and exploitation of Ukraine. Its threats against Ukraine will prove meaningless, as all such threats will be considered threats against 26 other nations.
Although, in theory, membership in NATO is not a requirement for eventual entry into the European Union, in reality NATO membership would greatly facilitate such integration and make it virtually impossible for Europeans to withhold EU membership. Both the European public and its political leaders would become comfortable with the idea of Ukrainian contribution to European security and full Ukrainian participation in Europe’s economic and cultural life would naturally follow.
Those who claim that NATO membership will entangle Ukraine in foreign military operations are either ignorant of the basic terms of the treaty or intent on disinformation. For example, all 26 NATO members and 14 other countries (including Ukraine) have been involved in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is considered an official NATO operation. Yet, each state decides on the extent and form of its participation. NATO member states have contributed as few as nine individuals and as many as several thousands. Half of the member states have fewer than 500 personnel in Afghanistan, hardly the sort of “entanglement” that would pose a problem for Ukraine. In fact, it may even prove of great value in providing “real world” experience in military tactics and technology.
Those who fear U.S. domination in NATO should only consider the case of Iraq. Despite strong U.S. urgings and incentives, only 10 NATO states have contributed forces to the U.S.led “coalition of the willing” in Iraq. Apparently, the other 16 members were not very “willing” and have decided to stay out. In short, the simple fact remains that NATO membership requires Ukrainian participation only in the defense of threatened NATO member states….all other military operations are discretionary with each member state. Although NATO and the Warsaw Pact are often considered as analogous organizations, they were very different creatures. NATO participation is voluntary, based on consensus, and entirely defensive in nature. Can anyone imagine a communist Bulgaria or Romania insisting on withholding troops from the Warsaw Pact?
But what about Russian objections to NATO membership for Ukraine? It’s time for Russians to get over it. They pose the biggest – probably the only – threat to Ukrainian independence and their concerns should have the least bearing on Ukraine’s choice of a defensive alliance. Russian foreign policy has always been that of a pragmatic bully. They will squeeze those who are vulnerable (like Georgia), but seek good relations with those who are of equal or greater strength. Ukraine can only gain their respect as an equal within a defensive alliance such as NATO. A decision against NATO membership will only exacerbate relations with Russia, not improve them.
Europe’s and Ukraine’s answer to Russian brutality and aggression in Central Asia should be expedited and full membership in NATO.
George Woloshyn, a native of Kupnovychi, Ukraine, is an American citizen living in Linden, Virginia.
