A 20-year deal agreed between Iran and Russia at the end of 2021 will see Russia tighten its grip on the gas market and determine at what price and to which countries Iran will sell its gas. The deal relates to the development of oil and gas fields – centering particularly on the Chalous gas field in the Caspian Sea – as well as to the construction of petrol refineries and technology transfer, OilPrice.com reports.
In late February, just days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Russia officially threatened to cut off its gas exports to Europe. At the time, in the middle of winter, this prompted Germany to suspend new sanctions against Russia and caused consternation among Europeans about their energy future. One theory suggests that Iran “consciously” withdrew from the European gas market a few years ago so as to increase Moscow’s ability to put pressure on Europe. Under this scenario, Iran certainly helped Moscow to paralyze Europe by using energy to mute Europe’s reaction to its military campaign to occupy Ukraine. In this light, Iran contributed, with Russia’s help, to turning Europe’s winter into a frozen purgatory.
In recent days, Europe has been having second thoughts about Iran’s place in the region. There is one big question: Is Iran a covert ally of Russia in the latter’s invasion of Ukraine? If the answer is ‘yes’, then that begs another question. What are Iran’s objectives and those of its main decision-maker in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei?
According to Mehran Emadi, Iran’s official adviser on the European Union economy, Europe was planning to buy gas from Iran and reduce its dependence on Russia. The U.S. had also recognized that it was in Europe’s interest to issue licenses enabling the export of gas from Iran, but the situation suddenly escalated to the point where the West said Iran did not want to cooperate and was instead pursuing Russia’s energy policies.
Iran, whose economy is collapsing, is the second-largest holder of natural gas in the world. But the country does not extract its own gas, and nor does it sell it. Nor does the Iranian theocracy pursue its nation’s best interests but instead follows its own Islamist and fundamentalist interests. According to government expert Mehran Emadi, the Iranian population, at least half of whom live in abject poverty, has been deprived of $23 billion for not extracting oil.
OilPrice.com also explains that the discovery of the Chalous gas field means Iran could be in a position to supply 20% of European gas needs. This would pose a serious geopolitical threat to Russia’s dominance on the European gas market which it, therefore, wants to prevent.
Previously, Europe saw Iran as a country that not only destabilized the region, but also posed a threat through its regional influence – in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen – through missile development and bombing plans, and through the development of Islamism and fundamentalism. But now there are fears that Iran could become Moscow’s sword in the region.
Cooperation between the Iranian and Russian regimes has led some Arab countries to conclude major deals with Russia in a bid to distance the latter from Iran. These Arab countries did not stand with Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, and have not publicly condemned the aggression, which is contrary to the UN Charter.
Iranian society has become a powder keg and Ali Khamenei is unable to reverse the economic collapse. He is, therefore, looking to the east for cooperation and even unity with Russia and China. He is also seeking to create a rift in the P5+1, the UN Security Council’s five permanent members plus Germany, with the help of Russia so that Iran’s nuclear program would not be submitted to the UN Security Council, nor trigger the mechanism that allows automatic sanctions against Iran in the event that it violates the agreement, to be used against his regime by the UN Security Council.
Global solidarity, namely the P5+1 alliance, could force the Iranian regime to withdraw from building an atomic bomb through ongoing negotiations at the IAEA in Vienna. The Iranian regime has no choice but to accept international control over its nuclear program. However, such a decision risks further encouraging the explosive Iranian society to turn against its rulers, as was the case in 2019.
Hamid Enayat is an Iranian protologue based in Europe. A human rights activist, he has written on Iranian and regional issues, notably geopolitics, secularism, and fundamental freedoms, for 30 years.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Kyiv Post.
