For the next two weeks, the eyes of the world will be on the Scottish city of Glasgow. More than 170 countries will be represented – in most cases by the presidents and prime ministers, and will be joined by thousands of scientists, business leaders, and NGO campaigners. Over 25,000 people are expected to attend. The common aim is to find a way to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to avert the real risks of climate change before it is too late. By November 12th if all goes well there should be a declaration of common policy which provides a framework for all the many different steps which can be taken in different countries and sector of the economy around the world.
The process may not produce a definitive answer. Aligning the interests of so many different countries, rich and poor, is hard work and although everyone will benefit if climate change can be successfully controlled and it’s impact limited, there are also inevitably losers. Businesses who are embedded in the old hydrocarbon-based economy will have to adapt their business models. Countries whose export revenues remain dependent on sales of oil and gas will have to diversify. Some will adapt, others will resist.
The fact that so many different countries are represented here, and bring with them serious plans for making their own local transitions to a lower-carbon world is, however, proof that change is coming.
Germany is putting € 9bn into the development of hydrogen. Britain will stop licensing vehicles that run on petrol or diesel from 2030. Japan and China are both developing long-distance power grids which can transmit electricity produced from renewables over thousands of miles.
The change will affect every part of the world and I am looking forward to talking to people in Glasgow about what Ukraine is doing – including the development of new wind and solar facilities, energy storage which will improve productivity and the development of own hydrogen projects.
Ukraine has the potential to be a major beneficiary of the energy transition and decarbonization. As the major Ukrainian trading partner, European Union is setting the standard with a new target to reduce emissions by 55 percent from a 1990 baseline by 2030.
Alignment with the EU is a national strategy and energy is fundamental to the success of that alignment. Europe will expect other countries to match their ambitions and standards in this area and for those who can do that the opportunities for new business are considerable.
The transition will reshape Ukraine’s own energy sector. The use of coal will decline, and we must protect those individuals and communities who have depended on the industry. But there is an opportunity too. Thousands of new jobs will be created as a new energy mix is put in place.
Electrification will transform many sectors, and low-cost, low-carbon supplies of power will allow new companies to be created, raising living standards. Ukrainian energy companies should determine to be at the heart of that process and to help others to join the process and to share in the benefits. One of them is DTEK, which has embarked on a path of transformation and actively invested in renewable energy sources, digital grids, energy storage systems, innovations, and new technologies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040.
Ukraine will also, of course, benefit from the reduction of the risks which climate change can bring. One of the major themes here is Glasgow is the impact that global change and atmospheric change can have on the environment of different regions.
By virtue of location, Ukraine is vulnerable – particularly to waves of heat, and to the droughts and water shortages that could result. Extreme weather is now understood by expert scientists as a phenomenon closely linked to climate change and likely to be felt ever more frequently from on. Ukraine must have every interest in being prepared for such instability and an even greater interest in participating in the global effort to mitigate the longer-term challenge of an irreversible increase in temperatures.
Our generation has a chance, perhaps a single chance, to change course. Queen Elizabeth the Second, Britain’s 95-year-old monarch, talks movingly of our unique opportunity to protect the future of our children and grandchildren. That is a message to the world – a challenge to us all. We cannot fail to respond.
Nick Butler is visiting professor and chair of the Kings Policy Institute at Kings College London.
