The Minsk II ceasefire agreement orchestrated primarily by Germany and France in February, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s mandate to observe its compliance, are working against Ukraine.
Meanwhile the West missed, yet again, an opportunity to deal adequately with Russia’s aggression at the recent G-7 Summit.
Consider this.
Both Minsk ceasefires has been repeatedly violated by Russia-led terrorists. The bloodiest massacres occurred mere hours after the agreements were finalized.
Russia used the armistice to integrate its regular military with the terrorists in Luhansk and Donetsk and to re-enforce them with convoys of forbidden heavy armaments. It expanded beyond the agreed to demarcations and is attempting further incursions on a daily basis. This is reason enough for Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko to pull out of the agreement.
But it gets worst.
In an excellent analyses in the Eurasian Monitor, Vladimir Sucor explains why the Minsk II “is a particularly unusual armistice, in that its military clauses are not the main focus. Most of the document’s content entails far-reaching political clauses to debilitate the Ukrainian state.”
Minsk II places no obligations on Russia. The aggressor and key negotiator is not even mentioned. There is no call for the terrorist to put down arms although all foreign troops, except Russia’s – there are none in Ukraine according to its narrative — must withdraw. The onus is on Ukraine to give up its territories by the fall and to“decentralize” authority. Decentralization there does not mean the powers Canada passes on to the provinces. Russia wants devolution of power in order to control the puppet government in Luhansk and Donetsk and ensure ongoing strife with Kyiv.
Some 80 percent of Ukraine’s population favors a united country independent from Russia. Poroshenko, therefore, must stop participating in the Minsk II diplomatic charade before more harm befalls Ukraine.
The OSCE’s impartiality as the observer of the ceasefire is in doubt.
As publicly reported, nearly 30 Russian nationals act as peace observers.
The organization is accused of gathering intelligence for the Kremlin, “failing to see” evidence damaging to Russia’s terrorist, and “acting as Russia’s spies” as one on-the- ground Ukrainian put it. Poroshenko and friends of Ukraine’s democracy must insist that such conflict of interest stop immediately. Even more unacceptable: the new chair of the OSCE is to be a pro-Russia Serb.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been a principled friend to Ukraine reflecting Canada’s foreign policy of “global security” and“projecting our values.”
In Ukraine, prior to the summit, he said “Canada will not turn a blind eye to the near daily attacks that are killing and wounding Ukrainians on their own soil.” He underscored that “until there is real peace, until occupying forces are withdrawn, until Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty is restored, there must be ongoing consequences for Putin’s regime.”
He recommended that the economic sanctions remain in place. The G-7 agreed.
Meanwhile, Russia continues the carnage in Ukraine bombing with forbidden hardware adding daily to the already over 6,400 dead and 16,000 wounded. Holding the line on sanctions in this scenario is to put it bluntly ludicrously inadequate.
The worst way to deal with Russia as 15 months of failed diplomacy have shown is to fear taking a firm stand with the bully. If the limits of Minsk II, the inadequacies of the OSCE, additional sanctions for Russia were not raised at the G-7 then they must bead dressed now.
The West must strike the Putin regime where it hurts most. Start by filling gaps in the current sanctions by adding family members to shore up abuses. Slap sanctions on producers of Russia’s war effort and on their international associates like Cisco who fuel aggression for blood money. Strike harder: name Russia terrorist exporting state and list President Putin as anundesirable. Add military aid.
Most importantly use the economic nuclear bomb. Remove Russia from the SWIFT banking system thus depriving the regime of secure, standardized and reliable ways of handling international financial transactions; anathema to the billionaire oligarchs.
The West needs to be as courageous as the patriotic young people from Kyiv’s Maidan who overturned a Russian puppet then moved to southeastern Ukraine to defend its sovereignty. Despite all oddsthey are succeeding. The West too must succeed in defending a fellow-democracy: admit that diplomacy has failed and that its time to end the aggression.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn, former president of U*CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., a consulting firm-brokering relations, is an opinion writer.
