As the coronavirus rages, so do global politics. In Ukraine, the last two weeks have been tumultuous, but good. Russia got pushed back several times. Is this a turning point for Ukraine? It could be if President Volodymyr Zelensky makes the next right move.
The turn began late March when the establishment of supergroup inside the Minsk accords peace structure was postponed. The new Coordinating Council would have de facto legitimized Russia’s puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk and bent Kyiv further to Russia’s control.
Zelensky should be applauded for stepping back from the brink of forfeiting Ukraine’s independence even though his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak—together with President Vladimir Putin’s newly appointed point man for Ukraine, Dmitry Kozak – is viewed as the architect of the stunt.
Most of the applause is for the Ukrainian patriots who saw through the ruse and went to the streets demanding “no capitulation; no peace at any price with Russia”! For Germany and France, signatories to Minsk, who criticized Russia’s ploy. Even U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stressed national sovereignty and territorial integrity in a gesture of support.
The president made the right call. There is much speculation whether Yermak will keep his post and even more on what the next round of Minsk will bring. Zelensky must continue ensuring it serves Ukraine.
To his credit, he played it right again in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, last week where following a fierce fight, billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky’s grab of PrivatBank was prevented. If passed in the final reading, this move will help unblock an $8 billion lending program from the International Monetary Fund.
This decision is vitally important for another reason: It re-aligned the oligarchs in the president’s Servant of the People Party, exposing the pro-Russia members and uniting the remaining contingent with other like-minded parties. Pro-Ukraine victories in parliament are now more likely.
Internationally, Ukraine scored a success. It pushed back in the United Nations, killing Russia’s resolution to halt the economic sanctions. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov retaliated, claiming Ukraine and others in the West are “torpedoing the resolution of Ukraine’s internal conflict” and called for the resumption of Minsk talks.
Minsk is now the decisive moment. Zelensky must not allow it to resume. Ukraine must call for a new peace plan.
The Minsk agreements are dead. They have been breached by Russia. It has failed to comply since signing them in 2015. They are illegal; never approved by Ukraine’s parliament. The other parties — the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, France Germany—have stood by helplessly as Russia, both the aggressor and monitor of the Minsk peace compliance, has murdered some 14,000, wounded 30,000, displaced 1.5 million, shattered 5 million lives in occupied Donbas while remaining a constant threat to Europe and world peace.
Now Zelensky must act. Fast. Russia is determined to take advantage of the world’s pre-occupation with COVID-19. Its attempt to take-over of the Minsk talks failed last month but it is certain that further manipulations are coming; more danger disguised as a Trojan Horse.
The peace formula must address today’s realities with appropriate participants. It must not be a variation or add-on to Minsk like the Normandy format or Steinmeier model tried to be.
Russia’s advantage–granted by the Minsk accords– must end. It was both the criminal and the judge. This conflict of interest let Russia get away with murder.
The new peace plan needs to consider President Vladimir Putin’s unrepentance has made him the most dangerous adversary to our way of life. His military and propaganda warfare are infesting democracies and institutions making them ripe for Russia’s takeover. The United Nations, G20, the OSCE, national elections in the U.S., Brexit, Hungary’s politics attest to this. The war is no longer just about Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the world’s attention is on the pandemic and Russia is using it to its ends. Its humanitarian aid to Italy and the US is too much like the “humanitarian aid,” masking military personnel and supplies, that Russia sends to the war zone in Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Russia is a more robust and more entrenched enemy than it was six years ago. Putin means to rule for life and advance. There is little hope left that Russia will turn into “one of us”; a more law-abiding participant of the world order.
The new peace plan needs to address this reality. It needs to be led by a neutral country–like Canada, or a great statesman — with the moral authority to deal with the political pandemic Russia has released on democracies including its war on Ukraine.
Other neighboring states– the Baltics, Scandinavians, and Poland whose safety is most directly at stake — must be involved. This means NATO too: Russia poses a threat to its members. The United States’ reputation as a global leader — shaken by Russia’s trickery– could be restored by working towards a resolution.
To succeed, the new peace plan must view Russia not just as the warmonger in Ukraine but as the enemy of global stability which it has proven itself to be.
However, Zelensky, you must move first. Pull Ukraine out of Minsk and call for a global peace plan.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn, a former senior policy adviser to the government of Canada and founding member of the Canadian group for Democracy in Ukraine, writes on international issues.
