When EuroMaidan says
“yes” to a transition of power, numerous players will need to engage on an
urgent basis. Their participation will
ensure that undemocratic forces, like Russia, do not precipitate a take over—bloodless
or otherwise—and reduce Ukraine’s most recent and torturous democratic struggle
to nothing.
The key player
is EuroMaidan. The immediate step for a
transition to begin is for its leaders to declare a provisional government
recognized by other global democracies. The
EU, US and other democracies, including Canada need to be ready. Recognition of the legitimacy of the provisional
government as the legitimate new government of Ukraine is step one. Then comes the hard work: reconstruction.
Most global democracies
understand that the way forward is to support a new era in Ukraine. The corrupt, autocratic, anti-Ukrainian one
presided over by Mr. Yanukovych is done.
Further negotiations are leading
to more beatings, abduction, and torture and buy time for compromised
politicians and officials to leave Ukraine to mind their personal assets or beg
off sick. This is unacceptable.
Equally
inadmissible is to allow Ukraine to fall into the hands of President Vladimir Putin’s repressive regime. It astounds
that despite the fine admonitions of Vice President Biden, Secretary of State
Kerry and others, United States– “the hope of the brave”—has still to apply travel
sanctions to big offenders like Yanukovych, Azarov and Kluyev. They top the EuroMaidan lists of “politically engaged person”; individuals or
members of their family suspected of profiteering from office.
The criticism
applies to the EU even more. Prime Minister
Azarov, who holds power up to 60 days post resignation, flew to Vienna in his
private jet. His wife has fabulous
holdings there. The double standard of
democracies is untenable.
Ukraine’s
provisional government will need to move quickly on a free and fair election. Here, Western knowhow and oversight is
invaluable. Merely sending election
observers is insufficient. Former
elections proved that the vote count is dictated by a predetermined
outcome. The provisional government might
consider delegating the elections process to an outside party. Canada, Sweden or both, for example, might oblige.
It will be
critically important to launch a process of reconciliation. South Africa offers a model. And nation building of a new Ukraine among those who supported the Yanukovych
regime consciously or under duress. The
provisional government will need to devote considerable human and financial
resources to this. Also, to reform
parliament, the executive and judiciary and tackle the reorganization of city,
oblast and national governments to eliminate the duplication and waste that now
exists. The list of must dos is endless.
Clearly, Western
governments and institutions will need to be engaged in the changeover. First, provide immediate support of the
provisional government. Then, with a
serious financial package. It is
encouraging to hear EU leaders already speaking to this point.
Much work has been
done leading up to the rejected—by Yanukovych — Association Agreement with
the EU. Experiences of friends who have worked through
their own transitions, like Poland, will be helpful.
It cannot be
overstressed that Western states have much to contribute; and must. Ukraine’s situation has made it abundantly
clear that fledgling democracies cannot cope on their own with ill intended leaders
within or nasty neighbours.
Russia’s determination
to control Ukraine be it through another trade war—illegal under the WTO for
members– hate speech, or fifth-column sabotage must be curtailed. Western powers must be clear: Mr. Putin’s relationship with Ukraine needs to
be more like that between Canada and the US.
He needs to be
reminded that the raison d’etre of NATO is European security. The West guaranteed Ukraine’s independence for
giving up its nuclear arsenal to Russia.
Greater visibility of NATO forces around the perimeter of Ukraine–Poland,
Slovakia, Turkey—will send the message. Yes, Russia will protest. Let it. A higher NATO profile might make it think
twice about getting aggressive with Ukraine.
Other key
players in Ukraine’s transformation will be the international financial
institutions– IMF, World Bank, EBRD.
Their help must be adequate and swift.
All this and
much, much more will need to be activated when EuroMaidan calls for the
transition. One way to manage this is to establish a
global emergency task force on Ukraine.
Some pundits
suggest that Russia be brought into such a process. This is wrong. It is not an impartial observer. It has no experience in transforming a
dictator state into a democracy. It is
an enemy of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It
must not be allowed.
Oksana
Bashuk Hepburn served as an OSCE elections observer numerous times in Ukraine
and spent much time there as President of U*CAN, a consulting firm.
