One of
the first things one learns in political science is that power is rarely given;
it must be taken. It surprises that the
magnificent EuroMaidan on the streets of Kyiv and other cities around Ukraine has
not done that yet.
Many ask:
what are they waiting for?
The
people are demonstrating tremendous stamina in their relentless demand for a regime
change that has ruled for its own interests not the wellbeing of the people. This
outpouring of anti-government anger has been a long time coming. President Viktor Yanukovych has merely
13%support but the straw that broke the camel’s back was his refusal to sign
the European Union’s Association Agreement.
For nearly two weeks now the demonstrations have been growing: over a
million turned out last Sunday.
The
three opposition leaders are crystalizing the revolution’s demands. Some deal with issues stemming from the
demonstration itself. They call for the
end to police brutality, release of imprisoned demonstrators, and a stop to the
crackdown against the demonstrators: peaceful political protests are the
people’s right. If these demands are
granted it will be a partial victory only.
The bad government that abuses, humiliates and belittles its people will
still rule.
The more lasting
demands call for the resignation of the president, his cabinet, and new
elections. Meanwhile, others are offering their views on what the revolutionary
goals should be. Some statements sound
like wishful thinking: the government and president “should resign for the general good of the country”. All the phrase lacks is a “please” at the
end.
Ukraine’s
three former presidents’ roundtable added nothing to the clarity. They even sparred whether force
should/shouldn’t be use against peaceful demonstrators. The futility of this effort
was underscored by the absence of the opposition leaders. It bought the President Yanukovych more time,
however: the demonstrators are freezing while he visits China, Sochi and
engages in talks and the hope that they will go home.
The
opposition leaders must stop this charade.
The 48 hours given President Yanukovych awhile back to sign the Agreement,
resign together with his cabinet ,and let the freedom fighters go is up.
How much
time, then, does a revolution need? The East
Germans spent every Sunday demonstrating until they broke away from the
USSR. In Czechoslovakia, it took a few weeks
for the government to step down.
Poland’s Solidarnosc closed the country with strikes before the
Russia-propped up regime collapsed.
What
will it take in Ukraine? It is hard to
say but the million strong demonstrators need creature comforts in addition to
patriotism. This became clear on the
night of December 10 when the police cleared the streets of the barricade, closed
several metro stations and all the cafes in the EuroMaidan centre. They deprived the people not only of their
symbol of resistance, but of the badly needed few minutes of warmth. A
real-life snippet from USTREAM, which provides real time coverage (see it on
Ukrajinska Pravda website) illustrates. One
of the broadcasters was handed a little kanapka, sandwich. It was bread
with honey, a piece of walnut and a few slices of apple on top; produce from a
village rather than from a supermarket. The poor helping the poor. At four in the morning some took the trouble
to share their meager food with those standing guard for Ukraine’s freedom. Tonight, Berkut attacked again.
Meanwhile,
the government talks concessions but the repressions harden. It continues to violate, beat, arrest,
terrorize, detain and hold peaceful demonstrators on trumped up charges. These are not good government practices;
neither is the raiding the main opposition party’s office. Nor is the attempt of hide this brutality
from the world by eliminating journalists from the scene. In addition to targeting and beating them,
the oligarchs have asked their TV stations to cut- down protest coverage. If the regime is given time to hold a referendum
on Ukraine’s choice between the West or East, it will not do so in order to
lose.
It is
not clear what are the opposition leaders are waiting for. EuroMaidan has given them tremendous
power. It has engaged the globe in
Ukraine’s cause: It has placed Russia in
a menacing silence. Yet their demands,
as well as talks by interveners—EU, US, the UN–have brought zero concessions from
President Yanukovych. Zero. The government controls all the levers of
power—parliament the administration and the judiciary. There is no Association Agreement.
To win,
the opposition leaders must rev-up; be more results-driven and establish tight
deadlines. For starters, they might reject
the President’s March timetable for Agreement; demand that he sign now;
similarly with the freedom for all political prisoners.
Perhaps the
opposition leaders will call for a national strike. Also, convince other key states to introduce
visa sanctions against the culprits and freeze their assets. Play
hardball.
Yurij
Lutsenko said that the demonstrators have two options: win or land in
jail. Jail means defeat. To win the opposition leaders must make
decisions quickly.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is an
opinion writer.
