At the end of this week, the first round of the presidential election will be held in France. According to the polls, Marin Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron have almost equal chances to win, Jean-Luc Melenchon who won the last TV debate is overtaking them, and François Fillon is somewhere on the back of. The results of the presidential election can become a point of bifurcation, which will radically change the existing world order. And the Kremlin understands this perfectly, betting on Madame Le Pen.
Why did the Kremlin choose the nationalist Le Pen? For example, the Russian government calls the Ukrainian nationalists “Nazis” or “fascists”. And once Putin called Russian nationalists “jerks” and “provocateurs”. So, is it possible to help French nationalists? Yes, if these nationalists act in the interests of Russia’s geopolitics. Putin helps Le Pen in France in exchange for loyalty to Russia.
In particular, propaganda channel RT received 1.2 billion rubles subsidy from the budget of the Russian Federation to launch French version. In 2017, the channel began to broadcast for the French, demonstrating numerous interviews with Le Pen and offending her competitors.
Le Pen is a pro-Russian candidate from head to toe. And she doesn’t hide it. Back in 2014, when French banks refused to give a loan to Le Pen, one of the Russian banks gave a loan of almost 10 million euros. At the same time, Le Pen didn’t pay the loan back due to the bankruptcy of the bank. Then members of the Russian party “United Russia” were presented at the congress of Le Pen’s political force. And literally a month before the first round of the election, Le Pen came to Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin.
Her rhetoric about Ukraine coincides with the Kremlin propagandists: “We are dealing with a government which came to power unlawfully, as a result of the revolution on the Maidan, and shelling the people of Donetsk and Lugansk.” At the same time, Le Pen recognizes Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. And she urges end to Russia sanctions. Not for nothing, but she was jokingly called Marina Lepenova, in Russian style.
What does Le Pen think about, realizing that Putin actually bought her foreign policy? As she says in her commercial, “First of all I’m French”. Obviously, she sincerely believes that she can “make France great again,” and loyalty to Moscow will not hurt.
But it’s a mistake. For example, one of the central points in her election program is that France doesn’t need the EU and NATO, which means that the victory of Le Pen will accelerate the process of destruction of a united Europe. Dictator Putin will be happy if there will be a weak Europe near Russia, which will not be able to stop his aggression.
What are the real chances of Le Pen to win? Some political experts believe that in the second round the French will unite against the radical Le Pen and will not allow her victory. As it was in 2002 when Marine Le Pen’s father received only 18 percent of the vote and was defeated by Jacques Chirac with 82 percent.
However, given the refusal of François Hollande to run for the second term of the presidency, the French showed they need a change of course. And Le Pen offers a change of direction. She is an alternative to the system. Yes, with the extremist past. But after rebranding, the Le Pen movement is transformed from a marginal force into a mainstream. The National Front has already become a leader among the working class. Trump’s victory in America and Brexit are making Le Pen more trendy. In the end, the pre-election theses of Le Pen are very sweet and very timely, let’s say the protection from illegal migrants.
39-year-old Macron is the main enemy of the Kremlin. This is a young politician with an attractive appearance, a French “Justin Trudeau”. His movement “Forward” was created only a year ago. Polls show that he will win Le Pen in the second round of the election.
Just the other day he said that he could “make Putin respect him”. In general, Macron believes that France should avoid rapprochement with Russia. Obviously, because of such an anti-Russian position, the Kremlin attacks the website of his political force. And using RT TV channel, the Kremlin misinformed the French society by the fake news that Macron is a gay. Macron had to respond to propaganda, which raised more noise.
At the same time, history already knows the precedent with the ex-president of France Nicolas Sarkozy who turned from an anti-Putin presidential candidate to the pro-Putin president at the end of his term. Therefore, don’t be charmed by the only anti-Kremlin candidate Macron.
If there are no surprises in the results of the first round, the second round of elections in France will be a battle of opposing worldviews: Macron’s pro-Europeanism against Le Pen’s Euroscepticism, Macron’s globalism and liberalism against Le Pen’s nationalism, Macron’s pragmatism against Le Pen’s populism.
65-year-old Melenchon is an alternative option for the Kremlin. He calls for stopping anti-Russian sanctions, supports Russia’s actions in Syria and defends Putin in his statements. After Euromaydan, he called the Ukrainian authorities “putschists and adventurers who are influenced by neo-Nazis”.
63-year-old Fillon is the second alternative option for the Kremlin. Before the scandal, he was the favorite of the race. But a criminal case against his wife who earned 500,000 euros as husband’s assistant in parliament, without coming to work, dampened his reputation.
Like Le Pen and Melenchon, Fillon stands for the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation. Although after Le Pen’s trip to Putin, Fillon changed the rhetoric about the Kremlin, saying “Russia is a dangerous country”. Apparently, in order to occupy his niche against the background of the completely pro-Russian Le Pen and the anti-Russian Macron.
It doesn’t mean that three of the four favorites of France’s presidential race are the puppets of the Kremlin. But it’s an example of how the Kremlin interacts with agents of influence, sometimes supporting them financially, aimed to influence European and world politics.
I would like to remind all participants of the presidential race a story with the French Prime Minister Eduard Daladier who believed that it was possible to reach an agreement with one dictator to pacify an aggressor. Then the war began together with the occupation of France, and he got into Buchenwald concentration camp. Flirting with the aggressor, which presidential candidates get involved with, could play a cruel joke after someone of them becomes France’s president.
