Public demand for a more structured political field is high, and has been for a long time. For years, we have been saying that the situation, when the country has more than 200 parties, is not normal. Most of them have no political clout whatsoever.
But only now have historical and political preconditions appeared for the formation of a political party based on the most popular among them: Batkivshchyna. Some political forces, including Reforms and Order Party and a part of the multiple Rukh parties, have long realized that the times when national democratic parties blossomed in big politics have passed – especially after political blocs were banned in the last parliamentary election.
As for Yatseniuk, he understands that his former party Front of Change, as well as Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna, no longer have a choice – ever since their merger began almost a year ago. In essence, this is an issue of their political survival in conditions where most opposition parties might not even be able to survive.
This is also partially a response to the process of consolidation within the Party of Regions, which in 2012 merged with Sergiy Tigipko’s Strong Ukraine party. Batkivshchyna was also pushed towards integration with the emergence of a new competitor – the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform headed by Vitali Klitschko.
The decisive role in this amalgamation was played by the jailed Tymoshenko, who before the last election became the main ideologist behind the creation of a super-party as a powerful counterweight and alternative to the Party of Regions.
Clearly, Tymoshenko has taken into account what happened in Russia where the regime marginalized one-by-one all the separated democrats and pushed them out of political life. Generally, the unification of opposition parties around Batkivshchyna confirmed that Tymoshenko remains the most influential opposition politician in Ukraine, President Viktor Yanukovych’s most fearsome opponent, even while in prison.
Despite all the government’s efforts to discredit Tymoshenko, it has not managed to destroy her political capital. On the contrary, the fusion of Batkivshchyna with the Front of Change and others has demonstrated to the public that the president is not the only one who is capable of consolidating political elites around himself.
This is a signal that the country has another heavyweight politician, capable of being the center of political gravity for those who are not happy with the powers that be. It’s a very serious statement before the 2015 presidential election.
It’s not yet clear whether the former prime minister will be to run for office, but as the leader of the most powerful political party, she will certainly affect the presidential campaign. Her position will have to be taken into account.
At the same time, Yatseniuk, by merging with Batkivshchyna and liquidating his own party, has demonstrated political maturity and courage. We are seeing his readiness to compromise and be a team player for a common victory – something that the opposition camp has traditionally lacked.
The union also created a sustainable personal tandem of Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk. The latter is now the “reserve candidate” from Batkivshchyna for president in case Tymoshenko, who was formally nominated, cannot run.
In addition, Tymoshenko personally endorsed Yatseniuk as head of Batkivshchyna’ political council. This strengthens his personal position and removes from the agenda any issues related to lack of trust among the party’s followers, and ensuing manipulations often prodded by the government.
After the unification, the majority of 93 deputies in the Batkivshchyna faction will comprise Tymoshenko’s old party. The next step is to consolidate the faction around Yatseniuk, whom Tymoshenko gives a great credit of trust.
It’s also worth mentioning that Batkivshchyna approved an ideological platform, authored by Tymoshenko and oriented towards the values of the European Union. This party has traditionally been reproached with a lack of a clear ideology.
Despite the general promising outlook, challenges remain. The idea of uniting all the political forces that ran for parliament under the banner of a united opposition has only been partially executed.
The parties that failed to join are Civic Position, For Ukraine! and the European Party. In the future there is a risk of centrifugal processes and escalating mutual distrust among the leaders of these parties, and will eventually lead to their separation from Batkivshchyna.
Their leaders will look for other centers of gravity. For example, Civic Position’s leader Anatoliy Hrytsenko has been leaning towards Klitschko, having publicly called upon the opposition to nominate him for president as the single candidate.
Yuriy Lustenko, the former Interior Minister who was recently pardoned and released from jail, also decided not to join Batkivshchyna. He has clearly decided to play his own political game, and this is probably explains why his comrade-in-arms Yuriy Hrymchak left Batkivshchyna.
Moreover, there is a high probability for conflicts to emerge at the mid-level of party management as some functionaries will have to give up their positions and ambitions in the fight for leading roles of the united Batkivshchyna.
Furthermore, this unification translates as a clear defeat for the authorities who have tried to do their best to halt the process and fuel quarrels within the camp.
The outcome has benefited Tymoshenko allowing her to return to big politics after a forced reduction in political activity which was directed by parliament’s own actions on one side, and her own ill health on the other. Her letters, decisions and addresses clearly demonstrated that she sets the strategic directions of Batkivshchyna, including staffing and policy.
Batkivshchyna itself got a timely reinforcement and became more of a team-style party, which can now concentrate on preparing for the 2015 presidential election as the number one opposition party.
Igor Zhdanov is a political consultant, director of Open Politics institute, who consults Batkivshchyna party.
