The machinations and manipulations of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his rich friends in the Kremlin play out in many different ways. The very term “hybrid war” (used to describe his conflict in Ukraine) embodies the fact that it is multi-faceted. As well as the military conflict, there is an informational component, and so on. Some of the plays used by Putin are for short-term gain, and some of them require much longer seed periods in order for them to become effective in the minds of those susceptible to his messaging.
The last few days have given us an unprecedented, but not unlinked, combination of messaging that will simply give Putin an opportunity to exploit a global power vacuum. Considering who delivered this messaging, it’s not hard to conclude that in fact it may well have been Putin’s Kremlin that has played a part in engineering this policy black hole.
Tillerson
Rex Tillerson is U.S. President Donald Trump’s completely inexperienced top diplomat. Sure, he had a great career with Exxon Mobil, doing multibillion-dollar deals with countries like Russia, but as a diplomat he has neither experience nor qualifications. On May 3 Tillerson addressed the State Department, promised those gathered a more rewarding and fulfilling career, talked about slashing 2,300 employees, and (here’s the really worrying part) indicated that – going forward – the United States won’t be insisting that other nations adopt U.S. values – like human rights.
The reporting on Tillerson’s comments left former U.S. ambassadors like Mike McFaul (and not only him) to conclude that with such a policy the United States is “stepping down as leader of the free world.”
Le Pen
Also on May 3 (busy day….) Marine Le Pen faced Emmanuel Macron in a televised debate ahead of this weekend’s presidential election run-off vote in France. Towards the end of the debate, Madame Le Pen explained that she planned to have a good relationship with Russia because “her France” would not care about how Russia was governed.
Anybody who was a friend to the people of Russia would care about how Russia is governed. That much should be obvious. People who value the status quo of the looting of the state above the rights of the people of Russia by not caring how Russia is governed, those people are devoid of morality, however, Le Pen is asking to become the head of state of a great European nation.
Trump
On May 2 Trump spoke by telephone with Putin. It’s not known whether any mention of kompromat came up in the call, but something that didn’t come up in the call was the conflict in Ukraine. Nothing about Ukraine, not a mention, at least, not according to the readouts of the call released by the Kremlin and the White House. How is this possible?
How is it possible that a war being fought in Europe in 2017 doesn’t warrant a mention in such a phone call? On this, is Trump essentially allowing a vacuum to form? Disengaging from America’s past policies, at least up until now seemingly continued by Trump Administration people like Nikki Haley, will certainly leave a vacuum, and that’s a position that Putin would just love to take advantage of.
Within hours of a phone call in which no mention was made of a war for which there is a very obvious culprit, and no mention at all of that having been made by Trump, on the front line in eastern Ukraine a battle broke out in a place called Svitlodarsk. Three Ukrainian service men were killed (the highest daily casualty rate in a few weeks) and the bodies of those three men, killed defending their homeland from a foreign invader, could not be retrieved because the area where they lay was under constant bombardment from heavy artillery.
This is the very real cost of failing to engage, of turning a blind eye, as Trump has apparently done. Of course, it’s a distinct possibility that Trump simply doesn’t understand the origins and nature of the war in Ukraine, and so chose to ignore the matter rather than educate himself, while Ukrainians are being killed every single day.
Putin
On May 2 (another busy day….) German Chancellor Angela Merkel took a trip to Sochi, (home of the most expensive and corrupt Winter Olympics in history, remember) to talk to Putin. At the press conference following their meeting, Putin stated “It would never enter our head to interfere in the political process of other countries.” This, obviously, is a lie.
Putin is basically saying “we stay out of the affairs of other countries” the same day Trump overlooks Ukraine, the next day Tillerson explains Trump’s “America First” policy in a way that should be an embarrassment to every decent minded American (McFaul later tweeted that human rights aren’t American values, they’re universal values, and suggested that the Secretary of State read the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.) To top that off then a contender in the French Presidential Election says essentially the same thing, that, where she to win, Putin could basically have carte blanche to do whatever he pleased.
To state the obvious, if we were to draw a diagram looking at the known links among Putin, Tillerson, Trump and Le Pen, there would be a lot of lines there.
Consequences
If people like Tillerson and Trump fail to lead, as a result of a combination of inexperience and stupidity and possibly more, on important issues, it falls to others like Angela Merkel to do it. She is certainly a capable and formidable woman, she stood next to Putin in Sochi and directly challenged him on the disappearance of many gay men in Russia’s Chechen Republic.
But those who lead this abdication of duty, and look to allow Putin the free hand he wants through promises of “non-interference” should be made aware that they’re complicit, at the very least, in allowing one of the world’s most deeply repressive regimes to continue to exist.
In a vacuum of power, Putin will press on in his war against Ukraine, where 10,000 dead have not – yet – been enough for the world to demand compliance with three signed/ignored peace agreements.
In a vacuum of power, Putin will continue his war against the European Union. That war, so far, is “only” being fought in the information space, but if you don’t know that this is happening then you simply haven’t been paying attention.
In a vacuum of power, Putin will continue to make the lives of the people of Russia poorer. If the corruption that he presides over is allowed to go on unchecked, then the life expectancy of the people of Russia will continue to fall, and more people will drop below the poverty line, and more Russian people will become targets of attacks because of their sexual identity, and the opposition in Russia will continue to be remorselessly shut down.
Article 20 (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states “Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and association” – this space for legitimate protest in Russia is almost completely closed, Putin needs this power vacuum. It’s not a coincidence who might be offering it to him.
