To demonstrate that point, a respected journalist, a BBC correspondent, tweeted to his 37,800 followers on April 8th “#Ukraine the
@osce_smm observed high level of cease-fire violations. What is behind this? As
usual we can only guess. Hopelessly” – this is a worldly and informed person.
The failure to ascribe blame and choice of non-offensive language and ambiguous
terms are the direct reasons for this lack of knowledge, and the result is that
even those whose job it is to inform are left feeling the need to “guess” what
is happening in Ukraine.
A little history of the conflict: In the summer of 2014 the
Ukrainian army was retaking territory from the rag-tag band of Russian directed
miscreants who started the war. Putin’s proxies were losing. Town after town
and city after city were being won by Ukraine’s crowd-funded army, places like
Slovyansk and Mariupol, and at the same time the Ukrainian army was close to
encircling and cutting off the few thousand men holding Donetsk hostage. An
analysis of maps of the war zone of that period demonstrates that the momentum
was with the Ukrainian armed forces.
Russia had two choices, let their proxies fall, or escalate
the war with more direct military support. As Russia had no grounds on which it
could justify any military operation against Ukraine, they needed to lie about
their actions, something that they continue to do to this day, despite their
denials there is overwhelming evidence of Russian military action in and
against Ukraine.
One of the clearest reports of Russia’s actions at this time
comes from Bellingcat, an organization that the Russia media has tried to
dismiss repeatedly with innuendo but an organization which nonetheless is
building a strong reputation for doing important work because – bluster and
accusations aside – Russia has failed to provide any specifics of where they
claim Belingcat are wrong.
In this report published on Feb. 15, 2015, more than a year ago, Bellingcat
proved beyond any reasonable doubt that Russia had launched missiles against
Ukraine during a period from June 14, 2014 until Aug. 8, 2014.
In producing the report the Bellingcat team analysed 1,353
artillery craters.
Let’s repeat that number, one thousand three hundred and
fifty three craters. The method of analysis isn’t hard to understand, and an
analysts doesn’t need to visit the crater fields to draw their conclusions.
Based on the displacement of the ground at impact it can be ascertained which
direction that shell was fired from. Analyzing satellite imagery back along the
direction of fire leads to the discovery of both vehicle tracks and rocket
exhaust burns on the ground. From the size of the vehicle tracks we learn what
kind of rocket launchers were launched. To cap this off the Bellingcat report
provides several mobile phone videos, uploaded to social media, showing rocket
launches and geolocating that footage further corroborates the contents of the
report.
This is when the tide turned in this war. The first Minsk
peace deal was signed shortly after, it was an attempt to stop the fighting and
resolve matters diplomatically. Although Ukraine quickly went about passing the
laws required under Minsk I, Russia didn’t respect the agreement for a second. After
continuing their land grab, Russia made commitments in Minsk II that it has
also failed to uphold. In spite of Minsk II, Russia continues to try to annex
further Ukrainian territory, presently their forces are most active in trying
to capture the city of Avdiivka, home to over 35,000 people and also home to a
large coke plant.
Calls for “all sides” to do this or that are misleading,
dangerously misleading. To reflect reality, the kind of language that is
appropriate is this:
Russia has attacked Ukraine. Russia’s denials of involvement
should be reported with the caveat “despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.”
Russia must immediately cease from attempting to grab any
more Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian military are fully within their rights
to defend their country and the citizens of their country from a foreign
invader.
The Russian military hierarchy directing the fighting forces in eastern Ukraine must be withdrawn to their own
country.
The Russian “shadow government” that has been created as part of the process of establishing, de facto, a
satellite state must be disbanded.
Russia needs to immediately stop shielding behind a claim
that Russian nationals participating in the conflict are just “volunteers” for
several reasons. First, they are more than volunteers if they have been
motivated to fight against supposed “fascists” by the swill proffered as truth
by Russia’s Kremlin-directed media. Second, there have been countless
confirmations from various independent sources of Russian active service
military men who have been identified in Ukraine. And, third, expecting the
world to believe that Russia could not stop thousands of men crossing their border to join a war is
absurd, Russia could stop this in a heartbeat. The next time they play the
“volunteers” card they should just be told this excuse is simply unacceptable.
The language needs to be this, for this is the demonstrable
truth. It may be a political nicety that such bold statements are not made, but the
failure to speak clearly is a self-imposed diplomatic handicap, and it has been
key to enabling Russia to get this far in their war against Ukraine. This is a
sad fact that the politicians who direct diplomats have to live with. The
handicap needs to be removed, so as not to enable Russia to go further.
A call on “both sides” to respect a cease-fire will be
appropriate only after there have been very direct calls made to one side,
Russia, to stop every element of their invasion of Ukraine. When Russia ceases
to attack, the need for Ukraine to defend will also cease.
Perhaps also an end to the ambiguity of language will also
lead to a far better understanding of the need to increase costs to Russia for
their continuing, unprovoked, attack on Ukraine. The core of this conflict was
never about the people of eastern Ukraine, or Crimea, it was about the fact
that Ukrainians removed from office a man who was thoroughly corrupt, that
Vladimir Putin is terrified of the same fate is a problem of his own making.
