There’s a war on. It’s crazy to ask Ukraine to push ahead with painful reforms at the same time as it has to fight this unprovoked war with Russia. The war must be the single focus, victory there must be the primary objective. So goes the narrative of some.
The biggest threat to Ukraine lies in the still endemic corruption in the country, argue others. It is a cancer.
Polemic arguments for either position are, to say the very least, unhelpful.
The reality is that Ukraine must walk and chew gum at the same time. Neither of the two pressing issues described above can be ignored, both are urgent and real problems, and both are causing devastation to the country in different ways.
Ukraine’s international partners should be credited with patience, and appreciated for their expertise and professionalism. It has been said that President Petro Poroshenko has listened to all of their advice and agreed with all of their proposals related to reform, the problem comes later when the body politic fails to implement these suggestions.
There is good reason why the political elites in Ukraine are stubbornly refusing more reforms – their ability to cherry pick ways in which they and their families may benefit from their access to power, inside knowledge, and sweetheart deals, is at risk. While much laudable reform progress has been made, these long overdue changes haven’t come about because of a belated charge to do good from those who have actually sat atop Ukraine’s politician system already for many, many years. The reforms we have seen have happened in spite of the old guard still wielding and controlling the votes in parliament, not because of them. Those politicians have been dragged kicking and screaming into every meaningful reform of the past four years.
There are many reasons why Ukraine must embrace the reality that both the fight against Russia and the fight against corruption are equally pressing. (Which is not to say I put them on an absolutely equal footing, I see them as salt and pepper, fish and chips, they are a necessary combination but the balance between the two varies.)
The war in Ukraine’s east must end. It has dragged on for over four years. Thousands have died and millions have fled their homes and, the horror of daily life for those on the frontlines of this manufactured conflict is not something we would wish on our worst enemies, if we consider ourselves decent human beings. On a daily basis residents of the Donbas risk death, their children may lose limbs from running into a mine or unexploded ordnance at any moment. The summer is upon us in Ukraine, but the memories of images of elderly people freezing this past winter still haunt me. The International Committee of the Red Cross do a remarkable job of providing aid to the worst-hit communities, but, in fact, they should not even be there. This war, my personal contacts from the region tell me, was unthinkable to them, until it started.
But to end the war Ukraine needs the full backing of international partners. Hundreds of thousands of brave men and women from Ukraine have taken up arms to defend their country, but this has not been enough to stop Vladimir Putin keeping the guns and artillery and tanks and ammunition and fighters from flowing across the border he controls into land that is not his. The only language Putin understands is the language of international resolve.
While most rational observers are able to draw a clear distinction between the need to support Ukraine against this unwarranted aggression from Russia and the question of fighting corruption, in the cold hard light of day how is Ukraine going to find a more sympathetic ear among those who are able to enact policies that would bring to bear the necessary pressure on the Kremlin to finally make the costs of destabilising Ukraine become too great?
The answer is by embracing the reforms that Ukraine, sooner or later, has to anyway adopt due to the demands of its people, who have stood in revolutions for an honest and accountable government and a political system untainted by illegally acquired wealth.
Ukraine’s reform progress in the first two years following the revolution was truly impressive. Writers who pen lazy lines wondering when Ukraine will start reforming and commentators who lament that nothing has happened are both wrong and doing Ukraine a disservice. At the same time, it is true to say that in the last couple of years the reform process has, to put it mildly, slowed.
Adopting, and sticking to, an invigorated reform process will win Ukraine many more friends in the West, and at the same time will also help Ukraine to rationally argue that while it is doing everything possible to address the things it can control, there are some things that require the assistance of its strongest allies too. Ukraine must adopt the moral high ground in every way possible, and then leverage the support that this will earn to help combat the external forces that instigated this war.
But this is not just about international support – the future reconciliation of Ukraine is also dependent on the success of Ukraine’s economy as a result of the country’s institutions becoming more transparent and better managed. Russia is fighting a hybrid war against Ukraine, defeating Moscow will equally require a multi-faceted approach.
Improving the living standard of all citizens of Ukraine will, no doubt, be one of the key campaign platform promises of all participants in the two big elections Ukraine will see next year. Citizens should consider the track records of those who will be asking for their votes. BatkivshynaParty leader Yulia Tymoshenko will no doubt talk about helping the poor, but she has had two decades in politics to do so, and she has mostly succeeded in making herself rich instead. Poroshenko and Groysman will hold up their records as praise-worthy, but the ratings agency S&P predicts that Ukraine’s GDP will rise by 3.1% in 2019. This is not an admirable figure.
Ukraine’s GDP per capita stands today at $2,186. By comparison Poland’s GDP per capita is almost five times as much, at $12,372. With Ukraine’s economy presently sitting at such a low base, the economic growth percentages that Ukraine should be achieving right now should, at the very minimum, be in double figures.
The key to unlocking the kind of economic growth that Ukraine is capable of achieving is in reforms; in the legal sphere to give foreign investors peace of mind, and in agriculture, which will give Ukraine a nationwide economic uplift, and finally bring to Ukraine the vast wealth that this sector of the economy can produce. With a GDP per capita of less than $2,200 Ukraine should be pursuing reform policies aimed at jolting the economy, not just nudge it ahead ever so slightly as Ukraine’s current politicians continue to do “just enough” to appease the nation and/or international partners.
How does this translate to success in returning the areas currently under occupation to Ukraine, whether we are talking about Crimea or Donbas? Imagine you are a resident of either place. When foreign investors are committing more investment into Ukraine, creating jobs, and offering international working standards, if the ratings agencies are studying the dynamics of Ukraine’s economy and predicting impressive growth; where would you rather see yourself?
Crimea, sadly, is a place with a decimated economy, the tourist business that many residents had relied on for their living is gone. The Donbas had been an industrial goliath, now that infrastructure lies in tatters, destroyed by shelling or dismantled by looting. Neither place offers attractive prospects.
Imagine a Ukraine making global headlines for announcing and then implementing impressive reforms, a Ukraine where there is absolute international support for both their reform and war efforts, and a Ukraine where jobs are plentiful, real wages are rising, living standards are improving, officials are accountable, and democracy is functioning. If you were in Yalta or Yenakiieve, which would you prefer?
In truth, all of this should have happened a long time ago. We can’t change the past, we can change the future. Still, committing to resolving Ukraine’s fight against corruption can also contribute to resolving Russia’s occupation of parts of Ukraine.
