Although the Dutch Safety Board and Joint Investigation Team have yet to release their report (it is due in October), we can look at the events of that time, collate the results of various independent investigations, and we can use common sense to piece together what happened to MH17 with a fairly high degree of certainty.
In the lead up to the shooting down of MH17, a total of 10 aircraft of the Ukrainian armed forces were shot down over the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. The people fighting against Ukraine therefore clearly had sophisticated weaponry capable of downing aircraft; they did not however have any air power of their own and so there was no reason at any point for Ukraine to be firing a single anti-aircraft missile at the sky. Much less would there have been a reason to fire at an aircraft clearly headed from west to east and exiting Ukrainian airspace.
On July 17, 2014, various social media accounts, and indeed the Russian Life News TV channel, all claimed that the “rebels” (for want of a better term) had downed a Ukrainian military transporter. The location where they boasted it fell was actually the location where they saw the remains of MH17 and the remains of passengers who had suddenly and violently been blown out of the sky. The social media boasts were quickly removed, of course, but screen caps remain. In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, what had happened, who was responsible, was already obvious from their own admissions.
After the event, images and recordings of a Buk missile system moving through the occupied areas of eastern Ukraine came to light. These images, taken by various individuals, all corroborate a route and timing of movement of a Buk missile system that has since been followed up on and been the subject of intensive testing by the BBC Panorama programme and Australia’s 60 Minutes programme, as well as tested in lengthy investigations by the German Correctiv! organization and also Bellingcat. There is absolutely no inconsistency, not one of these images have been shown at any point to have been anything other than completely genuine – the fact of a Buk moving through that area on July 17th is established beyond reasonable doubt.
We also move closer to the truth by analysing and subsequently dismissing counter claims and alternative theories put forward by Russia. In and of itself it is noteworthy that only Russia puts forward alternative theories about what “may” have happened to MH17. It is also noteworthy that Russia is the only party resisting calls for the establishment of an international tribunal to try those who are presently being identified as persons of interest to the investigation. Russia’s stated objection is that talk of how or where the accused will be tried is “untimely and unhelpful” before the investigation is concluded. This is pretty disingenuous of course – deciding on a trial mechanism doesn’t in any way prejudice or influence the independent investigation into this tragedy.
Let us be perfectly clear – a Buk missile system is not a piece of equipment that “yesterday’s miners and tractor drivers” can operate. It is extremely complex and the technical proficiency required to fire it comes from years of training. Logically, the only conclusion is that the people who fired the Buk that killed 298 innocent civilians were specialists.
One theory put forward by Russia (who else) is that MH17 was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter jet. The Russian MoD have claimed this to be the case on more than one occasion. They should be aware of the fact, as they have similar aircraft and should know their capabilities, that an SU-25 when armed cannot fly at the height or speed of a Boeing 777. Also, bursts of cannon fire from an SU-25 could not cause a sudden and catastrophic loss of all systems on board as was the case with MH17, such an attack would certainly have allowed the pilots time to put out a May Day, and the Black Box flight recorders would have recorded and reflected this. Lastly, the purported “satellite imagery” of a fighter jet attack presented by Russia has been demonstrated to be a crude, and disgraceful, fake with poor scaling and incorrect livery placement. What happened on July 17 last year may have been an accident, the lies that have followed are not, they have been very deliberate.
Russia talked early on about this matter not being “politicized” and here is the only place I can agree with anything they have said since the flight was shot out of the sky. The investigation and trial must be absolutely free from influence of any kind. There can be no financial or business relationship considerations in the trial process. An honest appraisal based on demonstrable facts of who was responsible, right up the chain of command to the person or persons who were responsible for giving orders to place a Russian Buk missile system inside Ukraine, is the very minimum the families of the 298 people killed that day deserve.
