In a week Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States of America. As he was campaigning for the right to sit in the most respected seat in the country, Mr. Trump asked several times, “wouldn’t it be nice if we could get along with Russia?”
Since his unexpected victory, now President-Elect Trump has repeated this same sentence a few times more. And, of course, President-to-be (barring any last minute hitches!) Donald J. Trump is absolutely 100-percent correct.
Without any shadow of doubt, it would be lovely if we could get along with Russia. When he tweeted a few days ago that “Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only “stupid” people, or fools, would think it is bad!” he was of course right. I am not just saying that because I don’t want to appear “stupid” or be classed as one of those “fools” – but hats off to Mr. Trump for his clever psychological manipulation there, it was almost too subtle to see.
The problem is, behind that rhetoric is what, exactly? On the surface these statements by Trump are only logical. Want good relations or bad? I’ll take good, please. Want better relations or worse? I’ll take better please, every day of the week. On the surface, what Trump says makes sense. But what about below the surface?
Realpolitik 101
The current state of relations between the United States and Russia is not the result of anything that America has done. In the crazed world of U.S. political debate, many people have been fed an eight-year diet of opposition to anything and everything that current U.S. President Barack Obama has ever done, but in truth the Russia-related actions taken by the Obama Administration have all been reactions to Kremlin actions. It’s ironic, of course, that the very people who have criticized the Obama Administration as having been “weak” and claimed that the outgoing president has “done nothing” to stand up to Putin are now, probably without any cognitive dissonance, cheerfully talking about undoing the concrete steps that Obama has actually taken to (literally) sanction, the Putin regime.
On Oct. 3, 2016 Russian President Putin angrily demanded that the US repeal the Sergei Magnitsky Rule Of Law Accountability Act, signed by President Obama in 2012. This law bans from entry to the United States Russian citizens who were involved in the false imprisonment and then murder of Sergei Magnitsky, as well as other Russian citizens known to have carried out significant human rights abuses.
The sanctions imposed against Russia relating to their illegal seizure of and ongoing occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula can only be seen as a repercussion of a (military) choice made in Moscow, and not as a result of anything that Washington did.
The additional Ukraine-related sanctions imposed against Russia shortly after the shooting down of MH17 reflected the obvious, but unexplained and unprovoked, presence of Russia’s military on Ukrainian soil. These sanctions are related to decisions made in the Kremlin, not the White House.
The most recent sanctions (for those who were not counting, that’s four rounds of sanctions imposed by the Obama Administration that some have deemed “too weak”) with relation to Russia’s interference in the U.S. presidential election, (something that even Trump himself conceded to yesterday in his first press conference in almost six months,) are, once again, a reaction to the Realpolitik as played by Vladimir Putin.
As former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul asked on Twitter recently, “Why is it Trump’s job to improve relations with Russia? Why is it not Putin’s job to improve relations with the U.S?” And that is just simply the only commonsense way to look at this problem. We cannot let the debate boil down to childish mutual accusations of “he started it!” But, the fact of the matter is, Russia did start this. And therefore the responsibility for action lies with Russia first, which must amend its behavior in order for there to be a basis on which to mend the relations between the United States and Russia. When we look past the platitude of Trump’s “wouldn’t it be nice…” question, and we get down to the reality of what has happened and why, the only logical next move comes from Russia – altering course, and changing behavior.
Trump can keep saying “wouldn’t it be nice….” until he sounds like the Beach Boys, but unless and until he realizes the realities of how U.S.-Russia relations got into the state they are today, he stands no chance of making them better. Wishing them better isn’t going to cut it, and so far his policy towards Vladimir Putin and Russia can only (most charitably) be described as wishful thinking.
Surprise! This ISN’T an American problem!
When Americans (regardless of their political choices) look past the hollowness of Mr. Trump’s “wouldn’t it be nice” position and realize that (as is often the case with The Donald) there is no substance behind it, there’s no plan, there’s no policy – there is some perspective that may cheer them up: You are not alone. The problem that we have right now isn’t’ confined to U.S.-Russia relations, in actual fact, the problem that we have right now is Russia’s relations with the rest of the world.
It is not just the Obama Administration that has slapped round after round of sanctions on Russia. It is not just the United States that has relations that it would be certainly be nice if they could be mended with Russia, but the European Union that has also applied round after round of sanctions against Russia, and also, just like the U.S. sanction, the EU sanctions are a response to Russia’s actions.
The EU is, for now at least, a block of 28 member states, and getting that lot to agree on anything is a slow and cumbersome process. Nevertheless, since Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, those 28 EU member states have unanimously rolled over and also even expanded their sanctions against Russian individuals and entities every six months, most recently doing so just last month.
Americans can also look a bit closer to home to see who else shares the burden of having to deal with the Putin predicament. Look north, to Canada, which also has sanctions in place against Russia. Japan, Norway, Australia and Switzerland have also sanctioned Russia.
No, America, you should not think that poor relations with Russia are your problem and your problem alone, because actually all developed democracies are in exactly the same situation. The challenge here is not one that Trump can fix, or do some kind of deal on. The need now is for developed democracies to stand up to the attack that is happening to them, and realize that this attack emanates from Russia. Wishing it away isn’t a solution. Mr. Trump has offered empty words, there is no solution behind them.
This isn’t America versus Russia. The fight today is Russia versus democracy – that is the explanation behind their unprecedented interference in the United States election, and why all Americans of all political leanings have to take it seriously, understanding therefore that continuing sanctions is the only sensible course of action until Russia starts to behave like a civilized member of the international community.
The reason why the world should take this seriously, and why only a united response to Russia from the international community is appropriate, is because we already know that Germany is next (a disinformation campaign to destabilize Germany has been underway for some time) and France also goes to the polls next year.
It’s not about America, it’s about the global democratic world order, something that Vladimir Putin is fundamentally challenging with his invasions of neighbors and interference in the election processes in places where he has no business. Wouldn’t it be nice to get along with Russia? Yes, that would be fantastic indeed. But look at what needs to change in order for that to happen.
Trump hasn’t, so don’t be fooled by his stage act. He’s offering nothing of substance, again.
