What direction does the foreign policy of Viktor Yanukovych take?
In just one month, Viktor Yanukovych will celebrate his first year in the office of the president of Ukraine. During this time the approach to national foreign policy has changed dramatically.
From being overtly pro-Western and Euro-Atlantic during the term of ex-President Viktor Yushchenko, it appears to now to focus on Russia.
With new legislation coming into force, Ukraine also declared insulation from any blocks and unions as well as cancelled the provisions for integration into NATO.
Various political steps suit Russia exclusively: Russian businesses were incorporated in to privatization tenders allowing the takeover of Ukrainian companies, particularly in strategically important sectors of economy.
The agreement with the Russian Black Sea Fleet naval base included a long-term extension, in exchange for a short-term gas discount.
Thus, even though Yanukovych tries to demonstrate that he intends to preserve friendship with Rssian President Dmitry Medvedev, Russia is gradually increasing its pressure on Ukraine.
This will result in the head of Ukraine either yielding to Moscow’s economic influence entirely, or a hasty political rapprochement with the West to balance the Russian influence.
Although the first official visit by Yanukovych as president was to Brussels, at present the relations with the European Union are increasingly troubled by concerns over the Ukrainian authorities restricting the democratic rights and freedoms of Ukrainian people.
Yanukovych should personally value the support of the European Union as it will allow him to not only balance relations with Russia but also enjoy his trips to the EU, communicate with European leaders and be welcomed as a member of the European elite.
To achieve these goals he should terminate the establishment of the Russia model of control over society, irrespective of its successes in Russia, and resume dialogue with the people. Otherwise we face not only sanctions from the EU and the United Sates, but increased dependence on Russia and the potential for a social explosion of similar magnitude to that of the 2004 Orange Revolution, which overturned a presidential election rigged for Yanukovych that year.
People First Comment: One year on, the picture is very different and the country is now looking more isolated than independent. Relations with Russia are, at best, cool, the EU is becoming outspoken in its criticism while the military, starved of funds, is becoming less effective. The political parallels with Belarus have not gone unnoticed. Ukraine is now no longer a hindrance to Russian-European Union relations as both recognize that the country has backed itself into a corner and can now be virtually ignored in real East-West relations. Rather than expressing Ukrainian independence, all that seems to have been achieved is an expression of Ukraine’s ineptitude. Ukraine needs a strong economic and political relationship with both Russia and the EU. Ukraine needs to demonstrate that it has real direction, that it is serious about partnerships, that, importantly, it fully understands European and Western values and that the Ukrainian culture and heritage has something of real value to the world.
Ukraine remains divided on Unity Day
The true depth of Ukraine’s social and political disruption was illustrated recently by public action on the day of symbolic national reunion of the western and eastern regions.
The authorities confined themselves to typical protocol: an on-screen presidential greeting, a concert for top officials and provocative warning by the interior minister concerning possible "bloodshed" by the opposition. The still-divided opposition celebrated the Day of Independence separately.
The majority, including Batkivshchyna of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, All-Ukrainian Union "Svoboda" and “Narodna Samooborona,” gathered at the historical Sophievska Square, where they denounced the Kharkiv Agreements with Russia, called for the resignation of the government and stressed the importance of alliance between all patriotic forces.
Other parties, who have declared themselves as oppositional to the government, such as "Front Zmin" led by ex-Verkhovna Rada speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, held their own meeting on Kontraktova Square.
People First Comment: Is it any wonder that the good people of Ukraine are not prepared to demonstrate their enthusiasm for the nation when the political parties have singularly failed to deliver anything but more suffering on the nation. The international community invested millions in promoting market economics, but virtually nothing on democracy education and institution building. In this area, Ukraine was left to fend for itself. As a result, the authorities and the opposition began to bend the rules of democracy and democratic good practice under the weight of corruption. Money has become the deciding factor to a point where today the national philosophy has disappeared in a fog of self-interest.
Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive officer of the People First Foundation, which seeks to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. The organization’s website is: www.peoplefirst.org.ua and the e-mail address is: [email protected]
