The Ukrainian opposition is one of the weakest in Europe
Despite support from European political parties the Ukrainian opposition has proved that not only is it incapable of uniting its efforts before the local elections, but that it has also failed to provide even the semblance of an alternative strategy, or platform of action to counter the forceful dictates of the ruling party.
When the presidential elections were over the newly formed opposition appeared to take a long-term break. They did not explain their absence to the public, nor the apparent lack of competitive pressure on the president; surely the ultimate priority for any opposition. As a result political competition amongst the parties has all but disappeared. The key players, that should by now have become strong figure-heads of opposition have lost their authority in the eyes of the people and their current ratings combined now account for less than 30 percent, posing virtually no threat to the governing.
Party of the Regions plans to win the local elections at the end of October by a landslide not because their cause is more just or their policies more appealing but because the voters have little or no choice.
People First comment: The opposition of Ukraine are facing their most severe test to date. For what ever reason, be it censorship or the fact that Party of the Regions members own more media, the opposition have been virtually cut out of the mainstream communications systems.
One might expect them to turn to the new media of the internet and social networking and return to the more traditional system of public meetings but both mediums require a very different type of message. Rhetoric does not work on the internet and few will turn up to political rallies if all they are going to hear are the same empty promises. These media require factual and honest information. They require a deep understanding of both the local and national issues; well considered presentations, detailed manifestos with realistic financial plans and most of all they need to demonstrate real benefits to the people.
Party of the Regions plans to win the local elections at the end of October by a landslide not because their cause is more just or their policies more appealing but because the voters have little or no choice. The Ukrainian opposition have backed themselves into obscurity through in-fighting, ego and greed. All they had to do was to find common ground, common messages and leaders with enough appeal to present viable alternatives. Sadly this has proven too much for them and Ukraine looks set for mono-party politics for years to come.
Ukraine’s economy is coming out of crisis
Representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ukraine have announced that in their opinion the Ukrainian economy has stabilised and that the banking sector is showing signs of increased activity and growth. At the same time they point out that the weak points of the Ukrainian economy remain the state budget deficit and the considerable public debt. However, the IMF expects the government to fulfil their agreement by the end of the year by completing the recapitalization of banks to facilitate a recovery in the credit market.
President Viktor Yanukovych said that Ukraine has overcome the considerable gap in the economy, that GDP growth is now over 6 percent and more than 12 percent in the industrial sector. According to a Finance Ministry prognosis, the year will end with inflation at 12percent. Experts at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts 2010 GDP growth at 4%, but also that a return of real GDP to the pre-crisis level will not happen before 2013. The leading international rating agencies, in particular Fitch, confirmed the long-term issuer default rating on liabilities in foreign and national currency of Ukraine at level ’B’.
People First Comment: Whilst the president and the government have come under fire for their attacks on crucial aspects of civil society it would appear that on the economic front they are making serious improvements. They have bought the economy under control in a very short space of time and if this leads to a prolonged period of financial stability then they are to be commended.
It is not just the national economy that seems to be working again as contractors have resumed work on the bridges, roads and infrastructural projects in Kyiv. If this is to be the pattern all over the country them perhaps the President’s ratings will start to rise again as this will be the first time in many years that national benefit will be more than just a promise.
It is interesting to see the strategic pattern that the presidential administration is adopting. The strategy of a clamp down on civil society followed by infrastructural development is a copy of that used by President Putin when he first came to power
EU considers bringing Ukraine into the group of strategic partners
The EU has left the door open to Ukraine for closer cooperation and integration. In particular, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Katherine Ashton has proposed to include Ukraine in the list of strategic partners of the EU along with Egypt, Indonesia, Israel and South Korea, adding these to the already selected " most important states” of Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and USA. The status of strategic partner for Ukraine could become a substitute for EU membership, which appears to have been postponed indefinitely.
Taking into account the organization of the Ukraine-EU summit in Brussels on the 22nd of November, Europe is providing Ukraine the opportunity to respond and create a model of effective cooperation. But this will be difficult without democracy in Ukraine, which is one of the main criteria for partnership in the European Union. In order to solve common economic problems Europeans want to have common political values, namely, the honouring of democratic principles and standards. Although the EU-Ukraine summit remains about two months away, we can already determine that that the results will depend on the capacity of the Ukrainian authorities to protect democratic values and freedoms and to conduct transparent and democratic local authority elections.
People First Comment: The European Union is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, outstripping Russia by far, and as Europe climbs out of recession so this relationship can only improve. Whilst the EU has yet to formally define what it means by a ‘Strategic Partner’ it is pretty obvious that if Ukraine is to be included within a group that also includes Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and the USA then it is something that should be taken very seriously indeed.
This group is a mix of business necessity and political expediency. From a trading point of view all of these nations are significant but from a political perspective a number have rather questionable human rights records including China, Egypt and Russia. Under the past President, Ukraine was very much in the democratic camp. Today however Ukraine is on the cusp and it is up to both the State Administration and the people of Ukraine as to which way it falls.
Party of Regions is surprised by the resolution of European People’s Party (ЕРР)
The recent resolution and press statement of the EPP, devoted to their concern about the violation of basic principles of democracy in Ukraine, has generated a sharp response from the Administration of the President. In particular, the deputy head of the administration Anna Herman spoke of the bias and questionable purposes of the EPP resolution. She mentioned that before writing such resolutions EPP leaders should come to Ukraine and check on the reality of the situation.
Secretary General of the EPP Antonio Lopez-Isturiz answered by declaring the EPP response was fair and just. He added that it was the intention of the EPP to help the Ukrainian people build democracy in the country and to develop the political, economic and social reforms necessary to bring Ukraine closer to the EU.
Perhaps Party of the Regions and the government will acknowledge their mistakes. We live in an information society where communication is essential if you want people to take you seriously.
People First Comment: As a professional journalist that has worked extensively in the west Anna Herman should understand that in a democratic society people have the right to say and write what they like so long as they not break the law. It is quite possible that EU and EPP statements tend to echo opposition comment simply because the opposition has placed greater emphasis on telling the outside world about what is happening in Ukraine than they have the people of Ukraine
Perhaps Party of the Regions and the government will acknowledge their mistakes. We live in an information society where communication is essential if you want people to take you seriously.
