The government of Ukraine has decided initiate policy aimed at increasing the social security of the people. Half a year before the parliamentary elections, President Viktor Yanukovych has voiced new plans for increasing living standards. These include: paying out Hr 1,000 ($125) to six million Ukrainians in compensation for their lost USSR Sberbank deposits; increasing insurance compensations to physically challenged miners (by Hr 500 – $62); and an incremental rise in general pensions starting from this April. Experts report that in order to implement the president’s new initiatives the government will need to find somewhere between 16 billion ($2 billion) and 25 billion $3.1 billion.
The majority of experts believe that the new social initiatives are pure populism – considering that there has been no information on how they will be financed.
The only suggestion that members of the government have expressed in relation to new sources of finance for the president’s initiatives has been to increase taxes.
For example, the proposed introduction of a wealth tax it is planned to collect around Hr 3 billion ($375 million).
The Ministry of Finance has suggested increasing the alcohol tax by 10-11 percent, ground rent for the purpose of natural gas extraction by 380 percent and duty on imported goods up to 24 percent, as well as well as performing a general increase of customs and tax payments across Ukraine.
As of today the key questions remain: where is the regime going to find $2-3 billion for the president’s new social initiatives and what effect will it have on the economy?
People First Comment: It’s going to take a lot more than Hr 500 to Hr 1,000 to buy off the Ukrainian population this time round. The people of this country are neither blind nor stupid. Those who have traveled abroad over the past couple of years have seen European living standards. They know that whilst those at the top… 21 billionaires and 7,000 millionaires, grow richer by the day, the people grow progressively poorer and this time it is highly unlikely that they will be bought off with pittances. In reality, most will take the money and at the same time be offended that the leadership should belittle them with such paltry amounts.
The economic situation is now too bad for handouts and if the Ministry of Finance has its way communal public services will cost more without any improvement in quality, it’s going to cost more to drown your sorrows, eat imported foods, wear imported clothes and shoes and you’re going to be ‘asked’ to pay more in taxes… so where is the benefit?.. When will the authorities stop fooling themselves and realize that the whole economic model is wrong? When will the opposition wake up to the reality of the crisis that is being generated? The government may be able to balance the books to keep the international investors from pulling the plug but it has all been at the expense of the people.
The cost of food in Ukraine is now on par with that of Western Europe, unless of course you only eat bread and kasha. As are fuel, energy and transport (air tickets and hotels are already more expensive than in many parts of Europe), but salaries are only a fraction of European levels. The population is getting progressively poorer, the blame is being aimed directly at the regime thus it is going to take a lot more than a few handouts to win the election this time round.
Tensions building to breaking point
Social organizations across Ukraine have been tracking a growth in public discontent. It has been reported that 36 percent of the population are willing to stand up for their rights and interests by way of protest actions.
The percentage is highest in western Ukraine (54 percent), followed by the southern, northern and central regions with between 32-36 percent. The lowest rate, of 24-28 percent, is in the east. Sociologists note that the motivation to participate if more often related to social issues than to ideological or political conflicts. This conclusion is backed by the fact that most of the recent protest actions by various social groups had financial motivations behind them.
The level of happiness appears to be falling at the same time as the inclination toward protest rises.
The latest research shows that in 2011 only 63 percent of Ukrainians felt happy compared to 53 percent in 2012.
Recent surveys of the population have proved a link between the level of happiness and the financial well-being of the people.
Another potential motivation for protest is the crumbling credibility of the government’s economic reforms. Currently only 28 percent of the people of Ukraine can see that reforms have been initiated and only 1-2 percent of Ukrainians believe that these reforms have been successful. With the people of Ukraine demonstrating a considerable the loss of morale and building anger and frustration the authorities’ inaction raises runs the risk nudging the population towards radicalism, with potentially dangerous consequences.
People First Comment: Just how long will it be before Ukrainian society reaches its tipping point? That point where the people say enough. Sadly by any measure it cannot be that far away. In the Soviet era and as a result of the appalling losses in the Great Patriotic War there was a social understanding that sometimes the people would have to suffer for the greater prosperity or security of the nation. That era is long gone. Today’s Ukrainians are not prepared to suffer for the national cause whilst those at the top grow rich.
Those that ventured into capitalism have seen their companies stolen from them by raiders, taxed to death by the government or driven into bankruptcy by rapacious bankers. Those that believe in the old system have seen their pensions and savings reduced to nothing, the social services reduced to a farce and many will end their days in abject poverty. The young see their schools and colleges racked with corruption and their prospects for meaningful employment reduced to nothing. Families have stopped having children because they cannot afford to feed, clothe and educate the families they have let alone feed new mouths. In the last few years the people of this country have seen the national reputation reduced to criminality, corruption and prostitution thus Ukrainian society has every right to say enough.
As far as the public are concerned all politicians’ only purpose for seeking election, whether in the majority or in minority, is to be able to access the power and financial benefits of Rada membership. Neither seems to understand that real power to bring about change can only come from the support of the people. At present they have little to support. The regime and the opposition would do well to listen and understand the growing public anger. The tipping point cannot be far away simply because the voice of public dissent, once muted is now louder than at any point since independence. It will not be an issue of politics or economics that sparks the fire but a simple social rebellion that catches the public imagination and once it starts it will be very difficult to stop as the issues are very deeply rooted.
A better attitude to civil society
Yanukovych and the Verkhovna Rada have started a new initiative designed to set up a dialogue between the government and civil society. In January the President appointed a Civil Society Coordination Board charged with managing the issues of civil society development. Later, on March 22, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved the law on non-governmental organizations which will enter into force on Jan. 1, 2013. On March 24, Yanukovych issued an order for a strategic governmental policy for the development of civil society in Ukraine, along with implementation guidelines.
Civil society has been quick to question what these initiatives will mean in practice. On paper the strategy is designed to create favorable conditions for the development of civil society in the country by way of securing a deeper cooperation between the third sector and the executive authorities.
It is expected that these activities will promote transparency among the governing authorities at both a local and national level.
The strategy also includes one interesting suggestion to regularly involve civil society in the governing authorities’ decision-making process; to date this idea has been totally ignored by the authorities.
Marina Stavniychuk, head of the Civil Society Coordination Board, has reported that nearly all the legal conditions are in place for the development of civil society; according to her the only regulation which requires revision is the law on local referenda).
Whilst statements and legal initiatives may be steps in the right direction, practical action will start to convince civil society representatives of the legitimacy of the regime’s intentions.
People First Comment: It is not that long ago that Democracy Watch was reporting that the regime had suggested following the Russian model in their relationship with NGOs yet today the same team are advocating for greater civil society participation. The cynical would rightfully ask why? Any steps taken by the regime to improve dialogue with civil society is a step in the right direction however to date their record has not been particularly positive.
First there was the new tax law and its potential impact on small and medium sized enterprises. The government actively sought contributions from the American Chamber of Commerce and the European Business Association. Both organisations put together high level working groups made up of some of the best tax and business minds in the country and produced reports that would have created a fair and positive tax environment. It is sadly obvious that the government used this for PR purposes and then ignored their advice. As a result 50,000 small business owners took to the streets.
Then there was the case of the new electoral law where a full agenda of participation was prepared so that the political opposition and civil society could actively participate in writing a new and fair electoral law. A short time into the process the government side started changing the agenda that two leading international NGOs IRI and NDI publicly withdrew from the process stating that they did not want their names to be associated with such a process or document. The rest followed suite and the new election law is a biased farce.
This regime needs to understand that in a modern democracy participation does not mean lip service. It means that you actually have to listen to the voice of the public and take their concerns into consideration which is difficult when the outcome of the legislation has been preset in the regime’s favour.
History shows that all regimes are finite. What is ironic about this regime is that they seem to be doing everything possible to ensure that they will not survive for a second term. The only people who seem to support their rhetoric are members of their own party who arrogantly claim their there way is the only way. How wrong could they be? Sadly the opposition is either equally blind or blindly apathetic as they offer few alternatives.
State, church, AIDS
A joint action of the governing authorities and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) have sparked a wave of protests after they attempted to close the only state hospital of the Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases; a decision which would have left patients with severe diseases, such as HIV, literally out on the street. Executing a governmental order, the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine forbade the hospital to accept new patients and ordered that the treatment of current patients be terminated by the end of March so that they can clear the building – which is on the territory of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra – by April 20th. The hospital employs over 170 doctors and usually has around 80 daily patients undergoing on-going medical treatment. A year ago the government of Ukraine agreed to move all non-religious establishments away from the territory of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra at the request of the Moscow Patriarchate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Nobody cared where all these doctors and patients would go. The hospital was offered a "new" building constructed in 1946 which is half the size and demands substantial reconstruction and refurbishment that require financing and time to finish.
Fortunately the situation attracted public attention. The response of local citizen and journalists in particular has persuaded the government to defer the moving of the hospital into another building until such a building has been properly prepared. The government gathered at a special meeting and decided that the hospital would work as usual and patients would not be transferred to other hospitals unless there were proper conditions for their treatment there. So there is still a chance that the hospital will continue to help over 2 thousand severely ill people every year. The public in its turn will keep an eye on the government and church which have shown that they can sacrifice the needs of severely ill patients for the sake of their own their personal interests).
People First Comment: When are the authorities and for that matter the churches going to take their head out of the sand and realise that unless society as a whole is motivated to fight HIV/AIDS it will reek social and economic havoc? Russia and Ukraine have some of the worst infection rates in the world but nobody is prepared to admit it. Well-meaning doctors and officials with little or no experience of fighting the disease pontificate their theories whilst people are dying.
The actual number of HIV-positive victims in the country is not known. The infection rate is not known simply because there is no screening system in place to find out. The blood testing systems are out of date. The blood donor systems are out of date. The supply of antiretroviral drugs is limited by both supply and by cost. The disease has crossed over from the drug dependent and gay communities into the mainstream public. Unprotected sex is commonplace and with the decline in economic standards teenage girls are either turning to or being forced into prostitution simply to survive… yet the authorities do nothing and the church closes down the only HIV hospital in Ukraine.
HIV in Ukraine today is believed to infect 360,000 people according to the World Health Organization but in reality the numbers could be appreciably higher; 33 percent of the estimated 9,000 sex workers in Kyiv alone are believed to be infected with the virus, many report that their clients demand unprotected sex and they are under no legal obligation to inform their clients of the risks. They alone could be infecting thousands every day. As the WHO have found in sub-Saharan Africa, the biggest hurdle to overcome is institutional arrogance. HIV has already decimated South Africa to the point where employers have to employ two people for almost every job just to ensure that they have enough labor to keep the nation moving. Based on the current levels of arrogance, how long will it be before Ukrainian employers have to do the same?
Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive officer of the People First Foundation, which seeks to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. The organization’s website is: www.peoplefirst.org.ua and the e-mail address is: [email protected]
