Groysman is a loyal party soldier of President Petro Poroshenko. He is both the youngest prime minister of Ukraine as well as the first Jew to hold this office. When voted mayor of Vinnytsia, he was the youngest mayor of any Ukrainian city and a successful one, too, at his re-election he received almost 78 percent of the vote. In a different time, these credentials might have sufficed to consider him a reformist force, but after the EuroMaidan Revolution, the benchmark was raised and it is far from certain if Ukraine’s new prime minister will clear the bar.
The immediate response by Western diplomats and Ukraine experts has been lukewarm at best: phrases such as he will be measured by his results or benefit of the doubt generally summarize Groysman’s appointment. But there is doubt. Lots of it.
Ironically, much of this suspicion is not necessarily linked to Groysman himself, but to the circumstances of how he obtained his position. The current developments are very much the result of Poroshenko’s power grab, a political maneuver that began with the appointment of the ineffective General Prosecutor Viktor Shokin in February 2015. This continued with the side-lining of foreign reformist technocrats like Aivaras Abromavicius in the cabinet and concluded with a call for resignation of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk himself.
Abandonment of principles
This was not a coup d’etat, just a political shake-up, the end of a political coalition, the price for jump-starting the Ukrainan reform-process again, or so it was claimed. But what was the price for this re-boot? Nothing more than the abandonment of the principles of the Revolution of Dignity (or EuroMaidan Revolution, the three-month uprising that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych on Feb. 22, 2014).
The international reformist technocrats who joined the government in December 2014 have all gone. It is painful and astonishing to see that Natalie Jaresko, the most accomplished finance minister that Ukraine ever had, was let go without any official acknowledgment of her historic contributions to the Ukrainian nation. Her departure is doubly painful, as for a brief moment, there was actually hope that she would become the next prime minister, making a real attempt to cut throught the Gordian Knot of Ukrainian politics. Yet the self-serving Ukrainian parliament no longer pretends to represent the interests of the Ukrainian people.
Instead of able, technocratic leaders with strong ties to the West, we see a less reformist, less competent cabinet, full of Poroshenko loyalists, almost none of which speak any Western languages. Furthermore, there has been a return of return of oligarch interests, as the new prime minister and his cabinet were not even able to receive all the votes of their own coalition and required both 23 votes of billionaire Igor Kolomoisiy’s Renaissance faction as well as 16 votes of the Will of the People group (another faction serving the interests of various oligarchs). It is a distinctly wobbly coalition which required three attempts to pass the Groysman program on his first day in office. This does not bode well.
Reforms despite parliament
At this point, the international community must realize that any relevant significant reforms have happened despite of the efforts of the Ukrainian parliament, not because of it. Every positive change happened either at the expense of the Ukrainian people, the dismantled network of Yanukovych or it was a non-negotiable demand of the International Monetary Fund and Ukraine’s international partners. The hope that the current coalition will be able to reinvigorate the reform process is nothing if not naive, and it is no surprise that the Western governments can barely hide their skepticism.
It is almost ironic that with his departure, one almost begins to miss Yatsenyuk: Despite his shortcomings and failures in politics, it was generally acknowledged that he was still the most competent prime minister that Ukraine has ever had, but he too realized at his appointment that he was on a kamikaze mission. However, while he no longer holds the office of prime minister, his mission is not yet over: As faction leader of the People’s Front with 81 votes of the current coalition, he has the power to trigger snap elections should the Poroshenko/Groysman government not deliver on their promises made to the Ukrainian people.
Should he fail to do so, he might very likely trigger a third Maidan Revolution.
Mohammad Zahoor is the owner and publisher of the Kyiv Post, part of his Kyiv-based ISTIL Group.
