Donbas deputy shuffle
A number of members of parliament with the former ruling Party of Regions have filed for office in districts of the Donbas.
Out of the 34 districts in Donetsk and Luhansk, incumbent members of parliament filed in half of them. Local Luhansk elites filed in another two districts (incumbent Luhansk Mayor Serhiy Kravchenko in Luhansk City #105 and Luhansk Oblast Council chairman Valeriy Holenko in Svatove district #113) as well.
The MPs filed because they believe elections will be held in those districts, even ones currently occupied by Russian forces. In addition, if an occupied district holds elections to the Ukrainian parliament, pro-Kyiv candidates and international election observers will almost certainly not be allowed in the area, which guarantees the election of the pro-Russian candidate. Since Kyiv is in need of having the elections recognized as legitimate, they are unlikely to cry foul in a few occupied districts. It is easier just to accept the results and continue to work towards reclaiming the territory.
Out of these 34 districts in 2012, Party of Regions candidates won in all but two races.
Of the two independents that won, Volodymyr Struk in district 106 quickly joined the Party of Regions faction in parliament while, in the other, Valeriy Moshenskiy in district 108 remained independent. Of course, none of this precludes additional Russian aggression between now and Election Day in the Donbas, but it does give the Kremlin more options to explore.
Districts 41 and 45 Donetsk city are under Russian occupation. However, serious candidates have filed to run in these districts. Former Communist Party member of parliament Ihor Kaletnik (who headed the State Customs Service under ex-President ViktorYanukovych) has filed in District 41.
Former Prime Minister Yukhym Zvyagilskiy (who served September 1993 to July 1994) filed for re-election in his current district 45.
Slovyansk district 47 and Severodonetsk district 106 are controlled by the Ukrainians but the local elites lack a clear candidate.
Also, in the case of Luhansk district 114, the incumbent from district 108 (Krasniy Luch) Valeriy Moshenskiy is running as an independent. He was elected in 2012 as an independent and was the only Donbas deputy elected from a district that didn’t join the Party of Regions faction in Parliament. Currently he is a member of the pro-government majority in parliament as a member of the Sovereign Ukraine faction. Given the long border with Russia and Moshenskiy’s apparent pro-Ukrainian leanings, the potential for disruption is higher than average.
Races to watch
With up to 213 districts being contested, this week’s highlights include:
Volyn 19 (Volydymyr-Volynskiy): Svoboda MP Yevhen Melnyk won a relatively easy 36-17 percent victory over businessman Serhiy Kovalchuk (independent) in 2012. Kovalchuk is seeking a rematch, but the field is more crowded with two-time Justice Minister Serhiy Holovatiy (independent) entering the race. Holovaty was considered a rising star in the 1990s as one of ex-President Leonid Kuchma’s first justice ministers. Holovatiy made enemies by running and being elected on the Party of Regions list during the 2007 election. A local rising star, Ihor Huz, deputy head of the Volyn Oblast Council, is also in the race and backed by the People’s Front.
Dnipropetrovsk 26 (city & Babushkinskiy rayon): Regions Party MP Ivan Stupak declined to run for re-election. As a result, 11 parties and one independent are on the ballot to replace him. Strong Ukraine’s candidate is former Our Ukraine MP Serhiy Vasylenko. Vasylenko is one of Strong Ukraine’s more competitive single mandate district candidates. The Opposition Bloc candidate is Nataliya Vlasova, who works for the Oleksandr Vilkul Ukrainian Perspective nongovernmental organization. Vilkul was Yanukovych’s governor of Dnipropetrovsk and later vice premier. He has been keeping a low profile after Yanukovych left power, but appears to be financing his people in several parliamentary districts in the oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk 39 (Vasylkivka): This rural area of eastern Dnipropetrovsk is on the border with Donetsk. Incumbent Regions MP Yuri Samoylenko did not run for re-election and now 16 candidates are competing in the race. Right Sector leader Dmytro Yarosh is the best known name in the race. Mariya Pustova, an independent who is the deputy director of the Oleksandr Vilkul Ukrainian Perspective nongovernmental organization, is also in the race. This race and district 26 will be good measurements of how much money Vilkul is willing to invest to win elections.
Donetsk 41 (city & Voroshylovskiy district): The Yanukovych head of the Ukrainian Customs Service, Ihor Kaletnik, is running as an independent in district 41. Kaletnik was a member of the Communist Party until the faction was disbanded earlier this year. If elections are held in this district, which is currently occupied by Russian forces, Kaletnik is a heavy favorite as he faces only token opposition.
Donetsk 45 (city and Kyivskiy district): Former Prime Minister Yukhym Zvyagilskiy has filed for re-election in district 45. Zvyagilskiy, now 81, was the mayor of Donetsk in 1993 when he was tapped by then-Prime Minister Leonid Kuchma to serve as first vice premier. Zvyagilskiy then succeeded Kuchma as acting premier and served nine months in the post until June 1994. Zvyagilskiy has been a constant fixture in the Ukrainian parliament since being elected in 1990 before the end of the Soviet Union. If elections are held in the currently Russian occupied district, Zvyagilskiy (Party of Regions member, but running as an independent) is a strong favorite to defeat Poroshenko-backed entrepreneur Vitaliy Yurko.
Donetsk 48 (Kramatorsk) – On the last day of candidate registration, incumbent MP Yuri Boyarskiy filed for re-election. Now he faces Serhiy Blyznyuk, the son of the former governor and 23 other candidates.
Donetsk 50 (Krasnoarmiysk): Incumbent MP Leonid Baysarov is seeking re-election in this district but faces a tough challenge from fellow Donetsk native, MP Yevheniy Hiellierm, an influential member of parliament. Both men are running as independents this time, although Baysarov remains a member of the Party of Regions. Heller’s independence seems to be a plus in the race.
Donetsk 58 (Mariupol city, October district): If there was any doubt whether Donetsk Governor Serhiy Taruta would keep his job after the election, there is no more. Taruta is the leading candidate for parliament in one of two districts in Mariupol city, where the acting seat of Donetsk government is located. The relationship between Poroshenko and Taruta has been strained from the beginning and now there are credible reports that Poroshenko even refuses to meet with the Donetsk governor. As a result, Taruta has positioned himself strongly to win election in his native Mariupol. The current incumbent, MP Oleksiy Biliy, vacated the seat to be #5 on the Opposition Bloc list.
Donetsk 59 (Maryinka): The western part of Donetsk Oblast that borders Dnipropetrovsk has been vacated by MP Oleksandr Vasylyev, who chose not to run. Out of 26 candidates to replace him, former MP Valeriy Konovalyuk appears to be the front runner. Konovalyuk resigned in protest last year as an adviser to Yanukovych over the president’s flirtation with signing the association agreement with the European Union. Konovalyuk is strongly believed to be a Russian military intelligence officer. His main obstacle to winning is National Front candidate, Stepan Holovko, who served with distinction in the Azov Battalion this year. Few races offer such a sharp contrast in world views as this one.
Kirovohrad 99 (city & Lenin district) & 100 (Bobrynets): Sunflower oil businessman and MP Stanislav Berezkin was elected with BYuT in 2007, but when he switched to the Party of Regions to run for re-election in district 100 in 2012, he faced a tough challenge from his spurned former party. Berezkin prevailed. This time Berezkin faces an easier re-election as an independent as he has the quiet backing of Poroshenko. However, his son Maksim’s independent bid for parliament in district 99 faces an uphill climb. BYuT candidate Andriy Tabalov edged the Regions candidate 33-30 percent in the district in 2012, but burned bridges when he and his father (also a BYuT MP) left the faction amidst allegations of bribery by the Party of Regions. Neither is running for re-election this time and the vacant seat has drawn 14 candidates.
Luhansk 105 (city, October district): The incumbent MP Serhiy Horokhov chose not to run for parliament, but Luhansk Mayor Serhiy Kravchenko did. Kravchenko is a controversial figure who has been critical of Kyiv and generally pro-Russian President Vladimir Putin. Election would give Kravchenko immunity from prosecution if a future case was opened against him for treason and/or separatism. It does not appear at the moment that elections will be held in Luhansk. The city remains occupied by Russian forces. In addition, the lack of water, electricity and other utilities are higher priorities for now. Nonetheless, if elections are held here, Kravchenko is a heavy favorite to defeat BYuT candidate Konstiantyn Mieshkov and seven others.
Luhansk 113 (Svatove): MP Viktor Tykhonov will not run this time. This has opened a vacancy for Valeriy Holenko, chairman of the Luhansk Oblast Council, to run. Holenko is running with the Opposition Bloc and is one of the few candidates from the bloc that has a chance to win an election in a district. He faces 13 opponents, including the mayor of Svatove, Yevhen Rybalko who is running as the candidate from the Radical Party, and National Guard Battalion deputy commander Viktor Moroshan. Dnipropetrovsk MP Leonid Serhiyenko, who was elected on the BYuT list in 2012, but left the faction last October, is running as an independent.
Luhansk 114 (Luhansk Station): A total of 41 candidates are competing to fill the vacancy left when MP Volodymyr Demishkan decided not to run. Only seven are from Luhansk. A slight front-runner in this crowded field is MP Valeriy Moshenskiy. He was elected as an independent in district 108 (Krasniy Luch) in 2012 by defeating a Party of Regions candidate by a narrow 35-33 percent margin. Moshenskiy was the only member of parliament from the Donbas (34 deputies) who did not join the Party of Regions faction. Currently, he is in the pro-government majority faction Sovereign Ukraine. Since elections are unlikely to take place in Krasniy Luch (district 108), Moshenskiy moved to the bordering district 114 to be a candidate. Among his opponents include two Ukrainian battalion commanders: Taras Kostanchuk from the Dnipro-Ukraine Battalion and Aydar Deputy Battalion Commander Yaroslav Kerychynskiy. This district covers the northeast part of Luhansk Oblast and shares a long border with Russia. Since there is no candidate from the local elites, this district would be a prime target for disruption on Election Day by outside forces.
Odesa 137 (Kotovsk): Longtime MP and businessman Leonid Klimov faces 14 opponents including a Klimov clone in his re-election bid. The most serious challengers are former oblast council deputy Mykola Saltanovskiy (Socialist) and Mykhaylo Pozhyvanov. Pozhyvanov began his career as the mayor of Mariupol before being forced out of office by local criminals. Pozhyvanov’s municipal management skills quickly landed him work as the deputy mayor of Kyiv under Oleksandr Omelchenko and led to his election to parliament with BYuT in 2007. This time Pozhyvanov is running as an independent but remains a member of the party. Nonetheless, given Klimov’s ownership of the popular Odesa soccer club Chornomorets and his 48-16 percent victory in 2012 over his nearest rival, Klimov remains a favorite for re-election.
Kherson 183 (city) & 185 (Khahovka): A total of 23 candidates are competing to replace Vitali Klitschko’s UDAR MP Andriy Putilov, who resigned to serve as governor. Serhiy Trishchanovych, the deputy chief of staff to the governor, is the BYuT nominee to replace Putilov while the Poroshenko bloc has their own candidate in Andriy Hordeyev. However, MP Mykhaylo Opanashchenko from Kherson district 185 has switched districts to enter the race. Opanashchenko (Party of Regions) defeated Serhiy Khlan in 2012 by a 25-21 percent margin. This time Khlan is the Poroshenko Bloc candidate in district 185 and the front runner. Meanwhile Opanashchenko, ditched the Party of Regions label and is running as an independent for this seat. Expect some serious money to be spent in the race over the next three weeks as the candidates battle it out.
Chernihiv 205 (city and Desnayanskiy rayon) & 207 (Koryukivka): Despite a solid 50-28 percent victory in 2012, BYuT member of parliament Valeriy Dubil is vacating Chernihiv city district 205 to take a more secure place on the BYuT party list (#19) this cycle. The vacancy has resulted in a diverse assortment of 20 candidates which include multiple businessmen, an athlete, a pensioner, a military officer, a battalion commander, a medical doctor, a deputy prosecutor and even Ukraine’s first astronaut, Leonid Kadenyuk. Businessman Valeriy Kulich is the nominee from the Poroshenko bloc and Chernihiv Battalion commander Roman Pytskiv is the nominee from National Front. Former Yushchenko-era deputy governor Volodymyr Prykhodko is also in the race as an independent. Independent MP Ihor Rybakov is running for re-election in district 207 and facing a challenge from local Communist MP Vikor Hubar. This is one of the few races in this cycle where current MP’s are challenging each other.
Kyiv 223 (Shevchenko District): Downtown Kyiv features a rematch of the 2012 race between Svoboda candidate Yuri Levchenko and longtime Shevchenko District Administration chairman Victor Pylypyshyn (formerly with Volodymyr Lytvyn’s People’s Party). Pylypyshyn edged Levchenko 28-27 percent (or 442 votes out of 98,000 cast) in the initial count but the results were later canceled due to fraud allegations and the race was rescheduled on December 2013. Pylyphyshyn also prevailed in the special election. Pylypyshyn, ever the agile politician, remained an independent and quickly switched with the turning tide to vote to impeach Yanukovych in February. Now both Levchenko (still with Svoboda) and Pylypyshyn fight it out in round three along with former Kyiv member of parliament Valeriy Lebediviskiy (backed by BYuT). Former Yushchenko Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko, who is best remembered for bringing a Russian language translator to his meetings in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergiy Lavrov, is also in the race.
Brian Mefford is a business and political consultant who is based in Kyiv. His website is at http://www.brianmefford.net/
