As sanctions continue to constrict Russia’s economy, the future of the country and its despotic president, Vladimir Putin, remain unclear. Reports of dissent among the oligarchs have boosted speculation about a potential ouster to get him out of power, but Putin’s iron grip on his position and the fear he elicits have tempered any prospects of a coup.
Yet history has shown that political change is often organic, and the possibility of such transformation is not inconceivable. Russia experienced an abortive revolution in 1905 and another, successful one in 1917. Given those facts, one cannot discount the vicissitudes of unrest as a factor in bringing about new leadership.
There are similarities between the 1917 Russian Revolution and the current situation.
The uprising in 1917 was spurred in part by the country’s disastrous participation in World War I, as well as by food shortages and the dissatisfaction of an impoverished citizenry. It put an end to Tsar Nicholas II’s oppressive, ineffective regime and propped up a new, Bolshevik government in its place. The tsar’s narcissism and seeming indifference to the suffering of his people did not endear him to the Russian populace, and his military blunders, which included many of his soldiers being sent to the front without any weapons so they could pick up the ones left behind by fallen comrades, accentuated his poor reputation.
The Bolsheviks ultimately executed Nicholas II and his family.
Like the hapless tsar, Putin is currently engaged in a war that has resulted in massive casualties among his military. Poor strategies and logistics have led to the destruction of hundreds of vehicles and equipment, including tanks, helicopters and planes. Meanwhile, reports of substandard, antiquated protective gear delivered to Russian soldiers have illuminated the lack of preparedness and quality of its army. The recruitment of inexperienced conscripts further points to Putin’s desperate attempts to upgrade his capabilities.
With such problems, morale has plummeted, as it did before the 1917 revolution. Contributing to the sense of discontent are the economic repercussions of Russia’s war against Ukraine, exemplified by sanctions-induced unavailability of goods and services across the country. Videos of Russian shoppers vying for packages of sugar in stores have arisen on social media, and that may only be the tip of the iceberg. Combine these and other concerns, and Putin has a recipe for revolt in the making.
One element that may be missing, however, is a charismatic alternative leader. The 1917 Russian Revolution had Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, but the current political climate is missing a personality who could replicate Lenin’s impact. Putin’s nemesis Alexei Navalny is a candidate for this role, but his potency may be limited, as he is currently incarcerated. Plus, any revolution would need the support of the military, and Russia’s general staff does not appear to be distancing itself from Putin’s camp. Though many Russians reportedly do not support the invasion of Ukraine, there is no unity bolstered by a specific political ideology (e.g., Bolshevism) connecting would-be revolutionaries. In that light, connecting people in the hopes of generating a cohesive, comprehensive uprising might be a tall order.
Still, the “Navalny effect” could be a catalyst for social and political rumblings as endeavors to broadcast his story to the world take hold. American cable network CNN on Sunday will premiere a documentary it produced called Navalny that should bring more awareness of his importance to viewers in the U.S. Social media is also replete with content highlighting Navalny’s courage, which may be a significant ingredient in the development of any insurgency.
The likelihood that a confluence of all of these components would lead to Putin’s exit remains slim. That said, history is saturated with slim chances that have led to new, better realities. The Russians have done this before when faced with tyrannical governments. It’s not out of the question that they could do it again.
They just need to remember something of the past to help set them on the way.
