The global guessing game is will Putin invade or won’t he? Frantic efforts by France and Germany to placate Putin are underway — each has left diplomats in Kyiv even though the US, Britain, and others have evacuated their personnel.
As pressure builds, a Ukrainian diplomat raised a trial balloon that his country will not apply to join NATO even though this will only whet Putin’s appetite for more concessions.
Markets overnight fell due to the uncertainty and that war will cut off Russian natural gas to Europe which now flows through Ukrainian pipelines.
Panic surfaced in Ukraine where people are resigned to fight, but hoarding and flight have begun. Add to all this the reality that Putin knows invasion will mark the beginning of the end of Mother Russia and that he’s already winning without firing a shot.
Uncertainty cripples Ukraine and Europe, concessions are in the offing and the Iron Curtain once more descends across Europe.
Threat of war
Behind the curtain is Ukraine, a country reeling from the threats and increasingly stranded. Putin has found the ultimate weapon to avoid his own ruination: The threat of war. He has said all along he has no intention to invade — because he doesn’t.
The mere threat has interrupted Ukraine’s trajectory of economic growth, foreign direct investment, judicial and political reform measures, and growing confidence, perhaps for years.
People leave, businesses close, transactions are frozen or abandoned, commercial flights are canceled, and the future is unknown. Uncertainty has also rattled the European Union and NATO itself, along with all those neighboring nations who remain outside of one or both organizations.
The threat of sanctions obviously doesn’t cut it, and the assumption that Putin can be dealt with reasonably is a non-starter. Russian diplomacy is an oxymoron. This is a shakedown. Master of deceit and verbal abuse is Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who told his British counterpart she was “deaf and dumb”.
Putin met with France’s Emanuel Macron for five hours and did nothing but claim Russia was the victim of broken promises, then in a press conference quoted a bawdy line from a Russian limerick about rape when referring to Ukraine:
“Whether you like it or not, tough it out, beautiful!“
Other Moscow mouthpieces have referred to “turning enemies into ash” or destruction using hypersonic missiles loaded with nuclear warheads.Honesty and diplomacy don’t work with these thugs and are equivalent to bringing a writ to a brawl.
Ukraine must forget NATO membership, it wasn’t in the cards anyway, and if doesn’t make that concession then Germany will secretly pledge to veto any attempt in meetings with Russia this week.
Then deadlines for de-escalation must be laid down with strict timelines linked to dire consequences: Pull back immediately or face 30 percent tariffs on everything; invade an inch of Ukraine and no NordStream 2 pipeline to Germany; and finally, sabotage or meddle in Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe again and all Russian banks will be kicked out of the international system and all Russians will be denied visas or residency in Europe, then forced to divest assets and properties.
Sound too tough? Try walking in the shoes of a Ukrainian IT entrepreneur or shopkeeper or carpenter or farmer with this impending catastrophe hanging over your head. That same dread hands over the heads of their Polish or Baltic or Rumanian counterparts.
Until Putin is outed as a criminal, and Russians kicked out of Europe, they will continue to extort, bribe, and cheat. And unless the ongoing threat of invasion is neutralized, Putin’s War against Europe, launched in 2014, will continue to roll out its final phase: Full occupation without troops.
The good news is that an actual invasion is not only unpopular in Russia, according to polls, but would be ruinous to the country and Putin knows it.
Body bags would number in the tens of thousands, Russia’s economy and everyone else’s would tank, and the occupation of all or more of Ukraine would become another Afghanistan.
Threatening, not invading itself, is dramatically more profitable which is why, logically and militarily, he won’t.
General Ivashov
Retired Russian General Ivashov
Despite tyranny at home, some critics have actually surfaced against Putin’s mobilization and threats. Retired and notable Russian General Leonid Ivashov said recently that the world does not recognize the annexation of Crimea which:
“convincingly shows the failure of Russian foreign policy, and the unattractiveness of the domestic one… [An invasion of Ukraine] will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state; secondly, it will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies. Russia will definitely be included in the category of countries that threaten peace and international security, will be subject to the heaviest sanctions, will turn into a pariah of the world community, and will probably be deprived of the status of an independent state."
Even so, the question nags will he invade or not?
My guess is he won’t because he’s reached most of his objectives without unleashing violence. Ukraine is sidelined and conveniently provided a distraction from the fact that Belarus — the size of Romania with more people than the Baltic states — is now militarily occupied by Moscow.
His next targets are Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and the Balkans. Then, once this dies down, Plan B will kick in: A “civil war” will be staged in Ukraine’s separatist-controlled region that will spill over onto a portion of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, helping to turn the Black Sea into a Russian Lake.
This prospect has brought NATO member Turkey into the fray as Ukraine’s major ally.
Putin’s targets: Eastern Europe then the Black Sea Region
Diplomacy won’t cut it. He’s a thug and must be treated like one. Toss him out of the global community and his people out of Western societies, and his dictatorship may weaken.
The West must continue to support and arm Ukraine and Putin’s other targets. Separatist and pro-democracy movements inside Russia must be surreptitiously bankrolled.
NATO should promise it won’t add members but support neighboring countries like Ukraine as de facto members. Call his bluff, then get rough and hope that he’s as smart as he thinks he is.
Published in cooperation with the author and her Diane Francis Newsletter on America and the World https://dianefrancis.substack.com/about
Op-ed disclaimer: The Kyiv Post is not responsible or liable for any content in this article, which expresses the personal viewpoint of the author only.
