This time is really different.
The COVID-19 pandemic does not make a country’s other problems disappear; it only shifts the focus towards the immediate healthcare dimension. In fact, given its novelty and scale, the crisis is very likely to exacerbate other vulnerabilities and put additional strain on those countries and citizens who were already struggling before this dramatic turn of events.
After six years of Russia’s war in the eastern Donbas eastern, after the Kremlin’s theft of Crimea, Ukraine will have to find quick solutions to a complex and multi-faceted problem. Although Kyiv can always count on its partners (mainly the European Union, Israel and the United States), it is incumbent on the political leaders to react swiftly, show resilience and determination, confront the public health crisis while containing the economic downfall. The challenge is tremendous and, before discussing the “what,” the behaviour and coordination of the president, government and the parliamentary majority will be even more important.
New numbers are coming every day and it is obvious that Ukraine cannot avoid what other European countries are also experiencing. More and more COVID-19 cases are confirmed and the pressure on the healthcare system will only increase, as the sick ones will require more attention and resources. It this is not enough, according to the forecasts, the economy will drop by 4.8% this year, and the country will have to rely even heavier on the IMF support to continue to honour its financial commitments. With the number of those facing unemployment and/or income drop skyrocketing, the need for state intervention and fiscal stimulus will generalize.
The positive side here is that the government can act fast and decisive, using its control of the key political institutions. Endless negotiations, as we see in other contexts, are no longer the major problem and cannot derail the response. However, in the old game of politics, this also means that the responsibility is full and that finding others to blame for communication mishaps or for the general mismanagement of the crisis will not work.
The moment is complicated, the citizens are worried and scared, so, as the pandemic evolves, the president can become also the main target for political discontent; changing ministers — or even prime ministers — like socks, every few months, is not a solution (Romania did it even before the COVID-19 crisis, with no avail). Preventing such a scenario is essential during these times, in which trust and political support are the hard currency and the harbinger for domestic and foreign investments and economic recovery. Given its known volatile political context and economic and military challenges, Ukraine desperately needs an expert handling of the crisis, so that past vulnerabilities will be muted and not reinforced.
A good idea in this context would be to put in place a very public and active war room (because, as Macron said, and Trump doubled up, we are at war!) bringing together the president, the prime minister, the national bank and key ministers, in an effort that goes beyond the typical decisions made during a regular crisis. This is about defining the narrative of the crisis, about mapping its political, social and economic consequences and about justifying choices. People won’t “buy” anything and will be patient only during the health crisis, rallying around the flag, they will not stand idle for the economic aftermath, if not given a clear perspective. Such a coordination mechanism defines benchmarks and milestones and has a key role: it sends a message of resilience, determination, empathy, and decisiveness. It gives people hope and comfort when they need it the most. All this should be done while avoiding self-inflicting wounds. It is hard to justify changing the prime minister or the health and finance ministers when the main worry is to project stability and build trust. Frequent changes, although they can keep the team on the toes and bring about some efficiency, are not exactly the winning formula in times of crisis. Better is to strengthen more the current team and help it deliver, make it an A-Team, with local and foreign talent.
The situation is so complex that not even a charismatic and driven president like Volodymyr Zelensky can succeed on his own. Charisma and sense of humor give some hope but must be doubled by strong and agile narratives and solutions, both leadership, management, and communications need continuous ideas fuel, to further fuel citizen trust and hope. This demands weekly hard work, by an extended executive team. If he cannot assemble a robust team, he will nonetheless be held responsible for what is going wrong, while not being able to benefit from all (good) hands on deck.
He cannot be a one-man-show, this is a marathon (at least two years), not a sprint, otherwise, at the end of it, he will be physically exhausted and electorally depleted. And his party may well disappear, meteorically, like it appeared on the political market. The land reform and the “anti-Kolomoisky banking bill,” named after billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, passed this week will bring some political points, but the next step is to consolidate the circle of decision and the brain trust, prepare and put in place a robust economic and administrative response to the health crisis.
Strengthening the local team while beefing up the strategic and delivery capacity through the use of foreign expertise will ensure that trust is maintained, the energy for modernization and reforms is at the required level, and the country safely navigates the storm brought about by the pandemic. Hopefully, this “Operation Resilience” will be in place and Ukraine will succeed in the more complex and challenging new normal.
