Rajan Menon: Is Yanukovych finished in Ukraine?
The Russian government, having figured that it had short circuited the Association Agreement and succeeded in drawing Ukraine further into its sphere of influence, and perhaps into the Russian-led Customs Union (constituted now by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan) and Putin’s projected Eurasian Union, now watches from the sidelines. Moscow has no good options. The situation in Ukraine is so chaotic that Russia has no means to create stability, let alone salvage the position of Yanukovych, who, in any event, becomes a diminishing asset by the day. The Kremlin, hyperconscious of its image as the Sochi Winter Games approach, won’t want to be seen using strong-arm tactics in Ukraine, and even were it so inclined, it’s not clear what pressure it could apply. Military intervention is out of the question. It would make Yanukovych’s plight worse and, in central and western Ukraine certainly, encounter massive popular resistance. Ukraine’s economy is a disaster and relies heavily on Russian gas supplies, but Georgia it is not, and there’s no chance that Russian troops would succeed in cowing the populace and reestablishing order.