In the days since Russia’s attack and occupation of Georgia, I have read countless statements from newspapers and politicians condemning Russia’s act as unlawful and illegal.
U.S. President George W. Bush stated: “Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st Century. The Russian government must reverse the course it appears to be on and accept this peace agreement as a first step toward solving this conflict.”
U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband said: “The international community will want to ensure that the message goes out that force is not the right way to take forward these difficult issues.”
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney was more blunt, telling Georgia’s president that “Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States.”
While the condemnation is clear, the actual ramifications remain unstated. This raises the key question of what “the West” can actually do to force Russia’s hand.
A military solution?
With the U.S. fighting wars in both in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush clearly has his hands full. Europe, split between Italian appeasement and German hesitancy, clearly has no stomach for even mentioning a show of force to defend “a faraway country about which they know little.”
Sanctions are also doomed to fail. First, in terms of trade, basically the only things that the West imports from Russia are natural gas and oil and some other metals. As the gas wars of the past few years have shown, Europe remains too dependent on Russia for its energy supplies to consider erecting higher trade barriers on its oil and gas. In fact, it is this dependence that has emboldened Putin in the first place.
U.S. presidential nominee John McCain has thrown around the idea of expelling Russia from the G8 talks. This is a good tactic and it will probably be implemented. There would be a minor loss of face for Putin, who clearly enjoyed hosting the world leaders in St. Petersburg in 2006. On the other hand, nobody really knows what the G8 is supposed to do other than show world leaders posing for jovial photos in front of monuments. As such, this would hardly shake the foundations of the Kremlin.
I think there is only one effective line of attack open to the West. It was first mentioned in the joint statement made by the presidents of the Baltic States and Poland earlier this week.
As is wellknown to all citizens of the Soviet Union, the right to travel to Europe has become one of the most visible symbols of freedom gained since the collapse of communism. Seven million Russians traveled abroad in 2006, a number that will have probably doubled by the year’s end.
Simplification of visa requirements for Russian travelers to Europe has been one of the key sticking points in RussiaEuropean Union relations for the past few years. In fact, Russia was aiming to sign a “visa facilitation” program with the EU to ease access to the Schengen zone.
One of the underlying factors in escalating the conflict in South Ossetia was the Russian government handing out passports to Georgian citizens. While it allowed the Russians to claim that their citizens were under attack, it clearly raises questions of the value and meaning of a Russian passport.
To clarify the situation, Europe could simply make it a policy to take 30 days to review all new visa requests from Russian citizens. Or they can at least make it as difficult for the Russians to get a visa as it is for Europeans to get a longterm visa to Russia, which includes an invitation signed at OVIR (visa and registration department for foreigners), and an AIDS test.
Unlike sanctions or a military attack that normally punish the worstoff, a new visa policy would only harm the elites of Moscow and St. Petersburg, who love to travel and spend money in Europe. If Russia decided to go titfortat, it wouldn’t really make a difference since so few Europeans travel to Russia anyway. True, some hoteliers and restaurateurs in Cote D’Azur or St. Moritz would suffer a drop in business, but this is war.
On the other hand, a couple months of forcing Muscovites to vacation only in Egypt or Crimea might shake the fragile peace that Putin has so carefully built and make him and all Russians see the true cost of invading Georgia.
In short, it would be a perfect example of making the punishment fit the crime.
Jed Sunden is publisher of the Kyiv Post and can be reached at [email protected].
