Moutaux’s arrest drew
attention to the growing problem of small arms proliferation in conflict-hit
regions of eastern Ukraine. Inadequate oversight of weapons flows in eastern
Ukraine has caused arms meant for Ukrainian government forces to land in the
hands of pro-Russian separatists. Poor economic conditions and pervasive
corruption have made Ukraine one of Europe’s leading hubs for illicit arms
smuggling.
Despite growing international
concern, the Ukrainian government has taken few tangible steps to curb this
problem. Since last year’s signing of the Minsk II accords, Ukrainian President
Petro Poroshenko has prioritized the removal of heavy weaponry from the
conflict zone, and paid comparatively little attention to small arms.
To achieve durable peace and
improve the security situation in Eastern Ukraine, Poroshenko must aggressively
crack down on illegal small arms sales and impose stiff penalties for
non-compliance. In addition, Ukraine must implement stringent counter-terrorism
measures to ensure that illegal arms do not enter the hands of far-right
nationalist or radical Islamic terror groups.
Why Poroshenko needs to crack down on Ukraine’s illicit arms trade
Since the early 1990s,
illegal arms sales have been one of Ukraine’s most significant security
problems. A 1998 Ukrainian parliamentary inquiry revealed that $32 billion of
Ukraine’s military assets had disappeared from 1992-1998 due to theft,
discounted off-the-record arms sales and poor oversight.
The extent of Kyiv’s
collusion with illegal arms dealers gained widespread international attention,
as Ukrainian arms proliferated to some of the world’s worst authoritarian
regimes. While Ukrainian government officials consistently denied involvement
in these arms deals, Ukraine’s image in the West was damaged by revelations of illegal
weapons sales to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Sierra
Leone.
Ukraine’s expanded
involvement in the international arms trade prior to the 2014 Euro-Maidan
Revolution made the problem of illicit arms sales even more acute. By 2012,
Ukraine was the world’s fourth largest arms exporter. But corruption at all
levels of government enabled the gradual liquidation of Ukraine’s self-defense
capacity and illegal sales of vital military equipment. In 2008, Yulia
Tymoshenko pressured then-President Viktor Yushchenko to allow Ukrainian
government watchdogs to investigate suspicious arms sales. However, few
tangible steps were taken to make Ukraine’s arms sales more transparent.
The outbreak of war in
Eastern Ukraine has greatly exacerbated Ukraine’s illegal arms problem. Since
the eruption of war in Donbas in April 2014, 500,000 firearms have been illegally
smuggled into Ukraine. This caused a dramatic increase in violent crime. In the
first half of 2015, the gun crime total almost equaled the 2,500 shootings in
the entire 2014 calendar year. RFE/RL
recently reported that Ukraine has participated extensively in illegal
smuggling via the Black Sea port of Odessa, alarming authorities in neighboring
Poland and Belarus.
In light of this growing problem, Poroshenko must pass legislation to deter
would-be smugglers from proliferating small arms in Ukraine. Current lax
regulations have caused smugglers to sell illegal arms at a relatively low
cost. Former Volunteer soldier Myroslav Hav recently told RFE/RL’s Ukraine service that in Donbas, weapons and ammunition are
frequently being bartered for bottles of alcohol.
A strictly enforced Ukrainian
government crackdown on illegal arms sales will make the cost of purchasing
firearms prohibitive for small-scale criminals. This will also reduce gun crime
and bolster Western perceptions of state stability in Ukraine, even if Kyiv cannot
prevent Russian weapons from reaching Donbas’s separatist militias.
Why Ukraine needs to intensify its counter-terrorism efforts
Ukraine’s small arms
proliferation crisis has raised concerns that Kyiv could be an unwitting
assistant to radical Islamist or far-right nationalist terror organizations. In
recent months, the SBU has arrested ISIS-affiliated terror suspects from
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and the North Caucasus.
In November 2015, a jihadist
was detained in Kyiv for suspected membership in Syria’s Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra
Front terror organization. Yet security officials in Kuwait have expressed
concern that small arms proliferation in Ukraine could allow ISIS affiliates to
purchase otherwise inaccessible weapons. These concerns have heightened
considerably since the recent Moutaux case.
In order to rectify this
problem and expand counter-terrorism cooperation between the SBU and Western
anti-terror organizations, Poroshenko must draw public attention to the
security threats emanating from Ukraine’s illegal arms trade and pass sweeping
counter-terrorism legislation.
In particular, Poroshenko
should crack down on corruption within the Ukrainian military that could facilitate
terrorism. Anna Nemtsova, a journalist for The
Daily Beast recently reported that some members of the Ukrainian military
have purchased Kalashnikov rifles for $500 in the Donbas combat zone and sold
the same rifles for $2,000 in Kyiv.
Imposing strict penalties on non-compliant
members of the military could have the twin benefit of reducing the threat of
terrorism in Ukraine and encouraging Ukrainians to report possible terrorist
activity to the SBU. Corruption scandals and revelations about the SBU’s
detention practices have eroded domestic and international trust in the SBU.
Moutaux’s apprehension was a
major victory for the SBU’s counter-terrorism units. But the international
community gave it only lukewarm praise as it was seen as a deflection from a UN
report on the torture of detainees by the Ukrainian security services.
Enforcing stricter discipline in the military and security services is a vital
step in Poroshenko’s efforts to restore shattered public confidence in
Ukraine’s political institutions.
In addition, taking tangible
steps to curb terrorism could bolster Ukraine’s long-term prospects of NATO
membership. Ukraine’s solidarity with the United States following the 9/11
attacks and participation in the Iraq War significantly improved US-Ukraine
relations during the Bush administration. Obstructionist actions like the 2002
revelations of Ukrainian air defense equipment sales to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq
heightened Kyiv’s international isolation at a time of economic vulnerability.
At a time when US military
support for Eastern Europe is being hotly debated between internationalists and
isolationists, Ukraine must curb illicit arms sales to reaffirm to skeptical
American policymakers that it is a reliable Western security partner. Decisive
action could greatly bolster Ukraine’s case for economic aid and future military
assistance against Russian aggression.
Small arms proliferation
poses a grave threat to Ukraine’s security and international image. The
experience of former Yugoslavia, which became a hub for illegal arms sales
during the 1990s civil wars and still faces repercussions from the
disappearance of six million weapons during that decade of turmoil, is a powerful
reminder for Ukrainian policymakers of the perils of not confronting illicit
arms trafficking. Poroshenko must take swift and comprehensive action against
the illegal arms trade if he is retain the trust and support of the Ukrainian
people, United States and Europe in the years to come.
Samuel Ramani is a recent master of philosophy graduate in Russian
and East European Studies at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford. He is
also a journalist who contributes regularly to the Washington Post, Huffington
Post and Diplomat Magazine amongst others. He can be followed on Facebook at Samuel Ramani and on
Twitter at samramani2.
