An independent Russian media outlet published documents allegedly detailing Kremlin plans to cement control over Belarus through constitutional changes and a Kremlin-amenable political party in Belarus. Independent Russian news outlet “The Insider” published several documents allegedly from internal Kremlin discussions on Dec. 25 outlining Kremlin plans to maximize Russian influence over the Belarusian government through shaping constitutional amendments and restructuring. Among the documents are a framework for gaining political and social influence in Belarus, a speech by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) General Vladimir Chernov seemingly to Kremlin officials on an unknown occasion outlining the role of Kremlin-amenable Belarusian politicians in constitutional reform, a list of Belarusian “assets,” and the foundational document for a new Kremlin-run political party in Belarus. The documents allegedly come from the President’s Office for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries, headed by Chernov, although there is no independent verification of the authenticity or provenance of the documents. The reports indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a scenario in which self-declared President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko leaves office. Without independent validation, the documents by themselves cannot serve as confirmation of the Kremlin’s preparation for a post-Lukashenko scenario. ISW has previously forecasted, however, that the Kremlin may support a pro-Kremlin alternative to Belarusian President Lukashenko to further Union State integration to cement Kremlin suzerainty of Belarus, a forecast that is in accord with the policies outlined in the documents.
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A woman carries a former white-red-white flag of Belarus as Belarusian pensioners parade through the streets during a rally to protest against police violence in Minsk, on Nov. 23, 2020.
