May Day marked the 67th day of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Here is an update on the situation:
General
Russia has been regrouping and reconstituting military units in the Donbas in an attempt to encircle Ukraine’s army in the east. Fortunately, that attack has so far failed. The key factors are the same as before: A) Ukraine’s fierce will to defend the homeland; B) the continued delivery of increasing deadly Western weaponry to the front lines; C) Russia’s poor supply chain logistics which have not evolved since WWII.
Mariupol
Ukraine’s defenders in Mariupol continue to hold out in the remains of the Azov steel factory. However, Putin has claimed “victory” in Mariupol and begun moving some units north for the Donbas battle. Thus, rather than grind down Russian units by attempting to take the last Ukrainian stronghold in the city, Putin has decided to not risk the casualties they will suffer if they try to eliminate the last of the Ukrainian defenders in the city.
Kherson
In the southern region of Kherson, the battle continues as well with Ukraine making some small gains in the western part north of the Dnipro River. Kherson is the only regional capital the Russians have captured so far, and they are quickly organizing a fake referendum on the so-called “Kherson People’s Republic”. Of course, we have seen this playbook before in the Donbas, and immediately after the fake referendum, the leaders of the so-called people’s republic will immediately appeal to Russia for protection and to permanently base their army there. Thus, the task for Ukraine is to push the Russians out of Kherson city to avoid the territory south of the Dnipro River becoming a de facto Russian-occupied state. By clearing Kherson of Russians, the much-needed ‘” land bridge” to Crimea will no longer be intact and that has always been a key objective of the Russian war.
Transnistria
In Moldova neighboring Odesa, there were rocket attacks on the security services building in the Russian-backed territory of Transnistria last week. The Russian army in the region constitutes around 1500 soldiers and 5,000 Transnistrian conscripts. Moldova, the country to which Transnistria belongs, has begun conscription of its fighting-age males in preparation for the defense of the country. The poorest country in Europe has neutrality in its constitution and a formal army of just 5000 persons. That being said, the Moldovan army is not a battle-ready force and would easily be overpowered by the Russian army. It’s not yet clear how a Russian attack on Moldova would take place as Russian troops would need an airlift over Odesa or the Black Sea and be vulnerable to destruction by Ukrainian missiles and anti-aircraft. However, Russia may be counting on its existing forces to move west towards the capital of Chisinau to force a capitulation. Such a move might lead to NATO member Romania intervening in Moldova to protect the local population and escalate the conflict into a full battle between Russia and NATO. Russian elites are already blaming their military failures on having to fight against NATO rather than just the Ukrainians and this could be the trigger the Russians need to formalize the claim. Pictures have just been released of newspapers in Transnistria preparing to publish appeals to Putin to “liberate them from the Ukrainian attacks.” Clearly, something is cooking in Transnistria and it’s not mamaliga (the national dish made of cornmeal).
Odesa
In Odesa, the city has declared a strict martial law from May 1which means everyone must stay indoors. This will continue until May 3 but could be extended. Also, May 2 is the 8th anniversary of the deaths of 100+ pro-Russian agitators who were incinerated in a trade union house during protests in 2014. Russia has been furious about this matter for years and is likely to use the date as an impetus for any attacks on the city. Keep in mind that Odesa was founded by Catherine the Great and would be the crown jewel in Putin’s “Novorossiya” project. Now there are reports of outside criminal gangs being hired to sabotage buildings and cause chaos. Ukrainian military and local government appear prepared for such attacks though and Russia has no way to land troops in Odesa with the risk of being shot down in the sky (or be sunk like the Moskva Cruiser was two weeks). Plus, the local Odesa mafia which has run the city for years is also well-armed and experienced in gunfights. A Russian provocateur or soldier would not want to be captured by the Odesa mafia, as suffice to say, their adherence to international treaties on the treatment of prisoners is ‘selective’ at best. Thus, the unity in Odesa among the government, military, and local clans give Russia no real chance of capturing the city at this time.
May 9 and Russia’s Victory Day Celebrations
The other important upcoming date is May 9, which is when Russians celebrate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Of course, Germany surrendered to the Americans on May 8th, but those are confusing details the Russians don’t like to remember. Putin has said previously that the “special operation” would be wrapped up by Victory Day and military hardware is already being prepared in Moscow for a massive victory parade. However, since Russia has achieved virtually none of its major objectives, it’s not clear how Putin can spin this as a “victory” for the Russian people. It is being speculated that instead of announcing a cessation of hostilities on May 9, Russia will formally announce a war against Ukraine. Given that the peace talks are going nowhere to date, it would seem that this war is likely to continue into autumn.
Putin’s potential “game-changers”
The only “game change” for Russia before May 9 to give them a façade of victory would involve a chemical or tactical nuclear attack on Ukraine. By using such a weapon, Russia would hope to force Ukraine to accept its terms in the peace talks. One can only speculate on where such an attack would take place, but with Kharkiv devasted already and Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia too close to the Russian front lines, the list narrows. Kyiv and Odesa are key components of Russia’s imperial mythology and since Russia ultimately wants to possess them, are also unlikely to be the targets of such an attack. Thus, the logical big city for the use of a tactical nuclear weapon or chemical attack in Lviv. Putin’s war plans have never included the occupation of this western region which is home to Ukrainian nationalism. A dirty bomb on Lviv would eliminate tens of thousands of Ukrainians who will never bow a knee to Moscow. Plus, it would complicate the supply lines from Europe into Ukraine. Would Putin give such an order? The question answers itself…
PS The latest delay in my updates was caused not due to work exhaustion but rather by the Facebook algorithms being manipulated by Russian trolls. For the first time since I began using Facebook in 2007, I was accused of “violating community standards” and banned for 2 weeks from posting or commenting following the previous update on April 14. Facebook talks a big game about fighting Russian propaganda, but in reality, it has allowed itself to censor those who speak in support of Ukraine.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of the Kyiv Post.
