KP: What was the goal behind North Korea’s action that South Korea called “a provocation”?
PR: North Korea thinks that war with South Korea is an impossible scenario. But they can drag this crisis to the highest level of tension, to consolidate their own society and control their miserable people. Since they have chronic economic problems, and they are also trying to pass the power from the current Kim Jong Il’s leadership to his son, they need a show of momentum for domestic legitimacy. Further they may think that the appearance of disruption and insecurity on the Korean peninsula may be better for their interest. Also they want to take a military revenge for a defeat several years ago in the area of the Yellow Sea, when North Korea’s warship provocatively crossed the maritime line and was met with South Korea’s overwhelming defensive action.
KP: What do you think is the probability of an armed conflict between North and South Korea?
PR: It is very difficult to predict such a secretive and murky regime’s future behavior. We are always trying to solve it in a peaceful manner. We think there is always a potential danger, but South Korea, together with surrounding countries, is now trying to reduce the possibility of a military conflict and concentrate on dialogue. One example is the six-party talks (China, South Korea, North Korea, the U.S., Russia, and Japan) on the nuclear weapons program. However, North Korea has rejected participation in this process, arguing that the U.S. has to normalize their bilateral relations. So, they always try to change the focus of attention. North Korea is a hard regime to deal with. It lives in self-imposed isolation. This is ultimately not a winning game for them. They have no significant foreign trade and the common people’s life is so miserable. So, this is a very peculiar regime which cannot exist in the 21st century. I hope that in the process of reconciliation and dialogue they can solve their domestic problems. We are ready to talk we always offer them humanitarian aid. But considering such provocations, we cannot accept any kind of large-scale economic cooperation. In the meantime, we are maintaining vigilance in cooperation with the U.S.”
KP: So, even after a torpedo attack on your warship, you don’t think North Korea wants to start a war with South Korea?
PR: I don’t think they want a war. They simply don’t have enough for that in terms of internal resources and external support. If a war between North Korea and South Korea were to take place, there is no chance for North Korea to win and there will be a collapse of its regime. They might presume that we will not launch a full-scale attack on them under any circumstances. So, North Korea is playing a very dangerous game. China also understands the gravity of this incident, so its prime minister mentioned that it would not protect any kind of such provocative actions, suggesting that China will not support North Korea.
KP: Is South Korea ready for a symmetric retaliation to North Korea?
PR: We have not yet made such a symmetrical response. We try to deter and to contain this kind of misbehavior of North Korea, not to repeat. So far we are considering diplomatic efforts, not military operation. I am greatly thankful to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry for condemning the attack on the warship of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) and joining the international support of South Korea’s position. We are closely watching North Korea’s military preparedness and our military forces are taking necessary steps to counter further provocation.
KP: In the case of a repeated action like that against the corvette “Cheonan,” do you have a plan of action?
PR: We cannot judge it at the moment. We have an overall operational plan for any kind of situations on the Korean peninsula.
KP: What does South Korea fear more – further provocations by North Korea or the fact that it has nuclear weapons?
PR: The use of nuclear weapons by North Korea is suicidal for their regime. This is North Korea’s tool for threatening, not using. North Korean strategy has always shown a pattern of brinksmanship. South Korea and its people are fully prepared for any action of North Korea, in a calm and cautious way.
KP: Which potential action taken by North Korea you would interpret as something that has gone over the edge?
PR: I don’t think the North Korean leadership is so foolish as to take a risk of jumping over the red line. On the other hand, South Korea is taking steps to cope with any kind of the future situation.
KP: How optimistic are you about the future of the relations between North Korea and South Korea?
PR: Over time, inter-Korean relations might have to improve. The countries bordering such countries as China and Russia are developing economically very rapidly. So, North Korea would not hold back indefinitely in such an interconnected world if it doesn’t want further deterioration.
KP: Do you think that to become more economically successful North Korea would have to regime change, or is the current leadership capable of changing its policies to manage the country more efficiently?
PR: We believe that they understand the rapid dynamics of the outside world. They might be divided on the future course, including the possibility of maintaining the current system. So, I think, its leadership has to choose the right path. Unfortunately, they still want to maintain current dictatorship and self-isolation because they believe that this is the recipe for their survival. This is some kind of a vicious circle of the wrong management of North Korea.
Kyiv Post staff writer Yuriy Onyshkiv can be reached at onyshkiv@kyivpost.com
