A new geopolitical union has been under consideration by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team for months. The threat of a military invasion by Russia has served to accelerate the unification of Ukraine’s allies.
Initially, it was about a UK-Ukraine-Turkey Union. However, even with a productive partnership on many issues, bringing London and Ankara together would seem quite a feat. Even with Boris Johnson discussing the Ukraine situation with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, we should not forget that back in 2016, the former London mayor won a £1,000 prize for a rude poem about the Turkish president having sex with a goat.
Warsaw, on the other hand, during the three years of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidency, has persistently shown steps toward rapprochement and support. After divergences with President Petro Poroshenko on historical issues that were painfully important to Poles, Andrzej Duda saw in the sixth president an opportunity to restore strong relations, increase trade and to strengthen his domestic ratings.
Zelensky has met his Polish counterpart more than other leaders. Since their first meeting on Zelensky’s first trip abroad to Brussels in 2019, the two presidents have visited one another more than once and met during events abroad. This year, Zelensky’s first trip abroad was to Warsaw, and on Feb 1. the Polish prime minister flew to Kyiv, announcing new arms deliveries, including the Polish “Grom” portable surface-to-air missile system, unmanned aerial vehicles, and ammunition.
Moreover, it was Warsaw that made a humanitarian proposal ahead of time, already expressing its readiness to accept a million Ukrainian refugees in the event of Russian military aggression.
Johnson became the second British prime minister to visit Ukraine since its independence. The visits this month of such high-ranking guests, as well as top officials from the Netherlands, Germany, and France, should have a calming effect and reinforce Zelenskyy’s rhetoric about the need not to panic.
For the sake of his visit to Kyiv, Johnson rescheduled a conversation with Vladimir Putin and a trip to Japan, definitely setting Ukraine as his geopolitical priority.
Overall, Johnson’s actions in this regard are logical and consistent. London was not only among the first to supply Ukraine with arms in response to the Russian threat, but also pledged nearly £90 million to maintain a stable government and energy independence.
Alliances, especially in times of military threat, serve two purposes: to enhance security and to build financial prosperity. Warsaw understands that in the event of a full-scale war in Ukraine, Poland could be next in line for the insatiable Kremlin. And then it will be forced to ask for help itself.
Now is the time to set an example for how to help one’s allies. Britain knows very well how dangerous it could be to “forgive” Moscow for its aggression against a democracy with European values and intentions, albeit not its strongest geopolitical ally.
But there is a downside to this alliance. And it is no doubt clearly visible from the perspective of the European Union. The alliance with Ukraine includes countries that definitely have problems with the EU.
The UK recently left the EU following a shocking and painful referendum.
Poland has obvious tensions with Brussels over the independence of its judiciary and recent rulings from its constitutional court which stated that national law can take precedence over EU law, prompting the EU to look at legal action.
Whilst Kyiv is developing positive relations with Poland and Britain, the leaders of France and Germany are ingratiating Russia. Their respective statements about dialogue with Moscow, separate from the U.S., have shown splits across NATO countries and within the EU itself. This is exactly what the Kremlin seeks, at least by destabilizing Western powerhouses, promulgating disinformation and breaching borders.
Russia’s market is huge and important for trade. But that does not entitle us to look for loopholes to forgive or mitigate a trading partner’s insane aggression in the center of Europe. Paying too much attention to business interests in such cases calls into question the values and rules that united more than 500 million people into one Union.
Poland and Britain understand the high stakes at play for the world by repeatedly “turning a blind eye” to violations of international law, seizure of borders and unleashing aggression.
Meanwhile, Turkey is not left behind and confidently confirms its status as one of Ukraine's most reliable partners.
The supply of “bayraktar” drones to Ukraine, which has already caused a stir in the international press, has enabled the Ukrainian army to feel more confident in protecting the land from pro-Russian mercenaries. Ankara has not deviated one step from supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has repeatedly offered to be a negotiating platform for Kyiv and Moscow.
And in this very week Erdogan will visit Kyiv.
Op-ed disclaimer: The Kyiv Post is not responsible or liable for any content in this article, which expresses the personal viewpoint of the author only.
