Analysis
Poland will host an Eastern Partnership (EP) summit Sept. 29-30. The summit will be an opportunity to gauge the effectiveness of the EP, an initiative meant to bring six former Soviet states — Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan — closer to the European Union. The summit will also have political significance for Poland both internationally and domestically.
Not only is Poland one of the EP’s founders, along with Sweden, but it also currently holds the rotating EU presidency. Many of Poland’s main goals for its presidency, such as facilitating greater cohesion funds for Belarus, which has been the hardest country for Poland to woo. Polish President Bronislaw Komoroski, along with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, traveled to Belarus on the eve of the former Soviet country’s presidential elections in December 2010 and offered Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko $4 billion in aid if the elections were held freely and fairly. Instead, claims of rigging arose after the vote, and Lukashenko cracked down on the ensuing opposition protests, leading to EU sanctions rather than financial assistance.
For the upcoming EP summit, Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov was invited, but Minsk has chosen to send its ambassador to Poland, Viktor Gaisenok, instead. Given this climate, no concrete achievements on the Belarusian front are expected at the summit. However, it will be important to see if initiatives are announced regarding support for the Belarusian opposition, especially as nationwide protests are expected in Belarus on Oct. 8 — protests for which Poland has expressed support.
Rumors have indicated that an announcement could be made at the summit regarding agreements with Georgia and Moldova. The countries could open negotiations with the European Union on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) like the one Ukraine has been negotiating. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat visited Poland on Sept. 7 to discuss a joint strategy on DCFTA talks with Tusk. However, the European Commission has not yet determined whether the countries meet the requirements to open DCFTA talks, so this announcement could be delayed or altered. Either way, it will be a key issue to watch at the summit even though the initial stages of the DCFTA are rather symbolic.
Ultimately, the success of the EP summit will depend on what concrete announcements and commitments will be made. Poland has staked much on whether it will be able to deliver results with the EP, and this will have implications for Warsaw both domestically and internationally.
