The trial of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is set to resume Sept. 27. Rumors circulating in Ukrainian media suggest President Viktor Yanukovych is looking for a way to release Tymoshenko.
Tymoshenko’s trial comes at a pivotal time for Ukraine in terms of the country’s relationship with both the European Union and Russia. Ukraine is looking to conclude bilateral trade and association agreements with the European Union, though Tymoshenko’s conviction in what is widely viewed as a politically motivated case could scuttle these plans.
Additionally, Ukraine has shown more independence from Moscow in recent months, but with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announcing his plan to return to the presidency, Kyiv’s ability to draw a firmer line against Russian influence may also be coming to an end.
Tymoshenko has been on trial since June, facing charges on what the Ukrainian government has called the abuse of power over a natural gas price deal she struck with Russia in 2009 during her time as prime minister.
Many have claimed that the trial is politically motivated, as Tymoshenko is the main challenger and political rival to Yanukovych. While the Ukrainian president has dismissed domestic and foreign criticism since the trial began, he has recently hinted that Ukraine’s criminal code system could be changed, a move which could acquit Tymoshenko from the trial on technical grounds.
Timing is an important aspect to this. Ukraine is attempting to strengthen its relationship with the European Union and is in the process of finalizing negotiations with the bloc on an association agreement and free trade agreement.
Along these lines, there were plans to announce the conclusion of these negotiations at the upcoming Eastern Partnership summit, which will be held Sept. 29-30 in Poland. But this has been put into jeopardy as it has increasingly become the consensus view that the talks will be directly affected by the Tymoshenko verdict.
While there are other obstacles to Kyiv achieving closer ties with the European Union, the outcome of the Tymoshenko trial could single-handedly derail these talks if she is convicted.
The resumption of the trial also comes just after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that he will be running for Russia’s presidency in 2012, and this could have a direct impact on Kyiv’s relationship with Moscow.
Tensions between the two countries have been on the rise in recent months, in part due to Ukraine’s ambitions to sign the agreements with the European Union while resisting Russian offers — declining to join Russia’s customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus and rejecting a merger between Gazprom and Naftogaz.
Tensions have also flared due to Ukraine’s request for Russia to lower the price Kyiv pays for natural gas. Putin recently decided to become personally involved in the negotiations over the natural gas price, and on Sept. 27, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov announced that Russia has agreed to review its pricing contract with Ukraine.
While details of the agreement have yet to be revealed — Azarov said that the agreement would not be formalized until November — it shows how Putin’s increased involvement is already having an effect on the Ukrainian-Russian relationship.
However, given that it was Putin who struck the previous gas deal with Tymoshenko (the deal Tymoshenko is on trial for), her conviction will not make it easier for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia without making concessions that it has so far not been willing to cede.
This is especially problematic because the debut of the Nord Stream pipeline in November will deprive Ukraine of much of its leverage in talks with Russia.
The outcome of the Tymoshenko trial, therefore, may provide an indication of how far Kyiv is willing to go to gain closer relations with the European Union and will also shape Kyiv’s evolving relationship with Moscow.
