Simultaneous
protests of servicemen of the National Guard (the special police
unit) on Oct. 13 and at the same time in two different capitals, the
capital of independent Ukraine Kyiv and the Soviet-era capital,
Kharkiv, and another attempt at a protest in Chernihiv is a rehearsal by the Russian special forces before organizing a military coup in
Ukraine.
The rehearsal of an attack on the
Verkhovna Rada on Oct. 14 that followed, belongs to the same
category. All political forces that took part in that day’s
celebrations (of creation of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the UPA),
denied any involvement in the attack.
Chief commander of Ukraine Petro
Poroshenko shares this view. He said that the meeting of draftees
from the National Guard outside of the presidential administration
was a provocation of foreign special services.
“It was a pity to
watch adult men who fell for a provocation of the foreign special
services and took part in this not-so-numerous action and attempt to
discredit the Ukrainian army,” Poroshenko was quoted by lb.ua as
saying in Zaporizhya.
He is spot on in
this case. The Kremlin suffered a serious military fiasco in its war
in Donbas. Creation of a Novorossiya in the form that Vladimir Putin
envisaged, is impossible. And this fact cannot be covered by any amount
of brainwashing in Russia by the Kremlin propaganda.
If you think that
Ukraine has lost everything and sincerely believe that the West has
betrayed us, here is what an authoritative Russian expert says about
it.
The best
representatives of the special services of the airborne troops and
special forces of the army, were “ground outside of the Donetsk
airport,” according to independent Russian journalist Stepan
Demura.
He also says that NATO
will soon be in Kharkiv as a result of a poorly planned military
operation in Donbas.
There
is also a difficult winter looming, which for the Kremlin can become
very problematic in terms of trade of its main commodities that make
much of the Russian gross domestic product, oil and gas. Even the
primary school children (in Ukraine) know that oil price has been
sliding.
Moreover,
there is a really complex problem to solve of providing for 2.5
million Crimean residents in the winter, and the occupying military
force on the peninsula. As a Crimean native, I will have to
disappoint those who believe that the Kerch ferries will suffice for
that.
In
reality, during the half year of occupation, Russia has not made even
a half-hearted attempt to make physical improvements at the crossing,
even by buying several large ferries. The Greek ferry Dorius, which
arrived in July, only fits 600 people and has been under repairs more
than it has been carrying passengers. Moreover, the Black Sea storms
that rage around the crossing, have always paralyzed the
work of ferries in the winter. So, you can forget about the stable
work of the crossing.
In
these circumstances there are few options left for Putin. One is to
start a full-scale attack with the aim of creating a corridor to
Crimea through Donetsk, Zaporizhya and Kherson regions. Two is to
start humiliating negotiations with Poroshenko to either allow
Russian caravans through Ukraine’s territory, or ask Ukraine to renew
supplies of its goods to Crimea.
But what about food sanctions, you might ask. It seems that the
whole of Russia, choking on its gag reflex, will live on a diet of
Ryazan swedes and Voronezh turnips, washing it down with powdered
milk, while Crimea will be eating good quality Ukrainian food.
But
what else has Kremlin got to do if the Potemkin-style bridge over
the Kerch straigh has remained a public relations stint, while the
hunger is real?
This is why the
Kremlin has taken up the tried-and-tested Soviet technology of
organizing a military coup. It has worked in Afghanistan and other
republics, and is described well in the Wikipedia
article about the removal of President Hafizullah Amin
in Afghanistan.
In the hard times of trials the impact
of a person with a gun is bigger than ever. If you top that with the
network of agents developed under President Viktor Yanukovych, and
then offer material interest for the uniformed people, you can achieve your goal.
This is why I am convinced that the
Oct. 13 events in Kyiv and Kharkiv that featured representatives of
the National Guard were a test of Kyiv’s reaction to a potential
military coup in the conditions of war. If there are no criminal
cases started in the next few days for leaving the place of permanent
deployment, disobeying orders and participation in illegal protests,
this would mean that the military prosecutors are not worth their
pay.
Soldiers are the
people who have given an oath. They cannot, like simple mortals, just
come out and strike. They simply don’t have this right, especially in
the times of war. How could they have simply locked the officers in
the store rooms and go to Kyiv, like they say they did? Are there
people who actually believe this farce?
Moreover,
unlike the privates who do not carry weapons all the time, officers are always armed. How could one possibly disarm a trained
officer?
In
any case, suppressing an embryo of a coup is always easier than
dealing with its aftermaths, which the Kremlin will continue
attempting to organize as the protest sentiments grow in Ukraine.
According
to the publicly available information, the protest actions of the
National Guard in Kyiv and Kharkiv were coordinated by the same
administrator in Kherson through the Russian social network
Vkontakte.
This
is enough entry data for a clever person. The case should now be
taken over by the professionals from the special services. And the
patriots, in the meantime, should make sure the government does not
forget the crimes against national security that we have seen in the past few days.
Taras
Berezovets is a political consultant and owner of Berta consultancy.
