It is now apparent that unless further actions are taken to deter him, Vladimir Putin will be tempted to proceed with his plan to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A powerful deterrent is necessary to prevent this. Here is what I recommend:
Ukraine should place demolition charges on the Molotov-Ribbentrop pipelines and promise to destroy both of them as soon as Putin’s blitzkrieg begins.
This may strike some as a questionable course of action, so let us subject it to examination in all relevant aspects, including its technical feasibility, its moral and legal justification, and its practical consequences.
1. The proposal is clearly technically feasible. Much of the pipelines are in shallow water, readily within reach of properly-trained divers. If Ukraine wants to destroy the pipelines, all it needs to do is send a team of divers up through Poland with a carload of explosives, rent a boat for a day, and set the charges.
2. The proposal is clearly legal and moral. Russia has already invaded Ukraine, taken some of its territory, and killed 14,000 of its citizens. These are acts of war far more serious than blowing up a couple of pipelines, let alone threatening to do so. Ukraine would be fully justified if it blew up the pipelines now, before the expanded invasion. However, in this case, the threat is more powerful than the execution. Rather than destroy the pipelines outright, it would be wiser to hold them hostage. This brings us to the issue of practical consequences.
3. From a practical perspective, the proposed action is necessary if full-scale war is to be prevented. While Ukraine should make all possible military preparations, this alone will not prevent invasion. Putin does not care about the lives of ordinary Russian soldiers. In fact, he doesn’t care about the lives of ordinary Russians at all. In 1992, he was entrusted with funds to buy food in Germany to feed the starving city of Leningrad. Instead, he reportedly stole the money. In 1999 he is suspected of detonating bombs in Moscow apartment buildings, killing 300 Russians to terrorize people into accepting war with Chechnya and expanded government powers. So, he doesn’t care at all about the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers (let alone the Ukrainians) who would die in a full-scale war. But he does care about the gang of kleptocrats and oligarchs who maintain him in power, and they care about their investments. Ukraine therefore needs to raise the Russian price the invasion.
Consequences for Germany
The Germans will also be quite annoyed if Ukraine makes such a threat. That is a very good thing. The U.S. protected Germany from Soviet invasion for forty years by threatening nuclear war if the Red Army invaded. We put all of our lives on the line to protect them. But now Germany is unwilling to put its pipelines at risk to save Ukraine. They are even going so far as to try to block other NATO nations from sending Ukraine the arms it needs to defend itself, or from threatening consequential sanctions. They have made it very clear that they are perfectly fine with Russia invading Ukraine so long as it does not inconvenience them. So, Ukraine must make it inconvenient for them. Invasions have consequences. The Germans must be made to understand that if they do not get on board with the rest of the Western alliance, and send arms and propose sanctions sufficient to deter an invasion, the invasion will have consequences, not just for Ukraine, but for Germany. Indeed, if Ukraine were to simply threaten to destroy the pipelines, it would cause Nord Stream stock prices to tumble. This would be a very useful shot across the bow to Nord Stream’s backers, both in Germany and Russia.
As for the U.S., the Biden administration may express obligatory disapproval, but many of them, and certainly the large majority of the American people, will be with Kyiv one hundred percent. Such a Ukrainian threat would strengthen America’s and the UK’s hands in dealing with Germany, as it will make clear that if they want to avoid economic disruption, their best bet is not to block arms shipments to Ukraine, but radically expand them in order to increase the potency of Ukraine’s military deterrent.
The purpose of threatening to destroy the pipeline is deterrence. It is not to create destruction, but to prevent destruction. It is the same strategy that has kept peace in Europe for the past 77 years.
But what if deterrence fails? What if the Russians invade anyway? Then you should absolutely carry through on the threat to destroy both pipelines. This will have a salutary effect. In the first place it will bankrupt those interests in Germany who are most closely aligned with Putin and are acting as his fifth column to paralyze western action on Ukraine’s behalf.
And don’t worry about inconveniencing Germany. The Germans actually get most of their electricity from coal, and have voluntarily shut down 20 GW of their nuclear power capacity, almost twice as much as the power they get from all gas, not just Russian gas. They will get by. In the event of invasion, Ukraine must do whatever it takes to defend itself, and that includes cutting off the gas exports that are one of the principal financial supports of the Russian war effort.
When diplomacy fails
Furthermore, by destroying the pipelines Ukraine would show a fighting spirit and resolve that will refute all those who now are writing Ukraine off as a lost cause.
In June 1940, after the fall of France, Britain was threatened with invasion by Nazi Germany. While France was defeated, its powerful fleet was completely intact and sitting in ports where Nazis might easily capture it and put it to use supporting the invasion. This could not be allowed. So, the British informed the French admirals that they needed to sail the fleet to ports where the Nazis could not get their hands on it. When the French refused, Winston Churchill took action. He ordered the British navy to sink the French fleet.
That was the resolve that saved Britain. It not only stopped the Nazis from acquiring the French navy, but it also showed America that the British were not going to surrender. So instead of giving them up as a lost cause, as many advised, President Roosevelt sent the British 50 destroyers and vast supplies of other types of military equipment. That saved Britain.
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Ukraine is now the Britain of 1940, facing alone the powerful forces of the enemy of the entire free world. Ukraine must show equal resolution if it wishes to survive.
Dr. Robert Zubrin is an American aerospace engineer. His latest book, The Case for Space, was recently published in Ukrainian.
Op-ed disclaimer: The Kyiv Post is not responsible or liable for any content in this article, which expresses the personal viewpoint of the author only.
